In our sporting corner of the world, betting is everywhere.
Consider Major League Baseball: The league has an official gaming partner, the broadcaster of its “Sunday Night Baseball” show has an official sportsbook, and the Dodgers’ World Series celebrations are sponsored by local resorts and casinos. On the TV screen, the bottom line provides odds and score updates.
You can bet on the next pitch, the next home run, the next game, the next World Series. You may love sports betting, or you may despise it.
Betting on tragedy? Profiting from the pain of our communities? We should all condemn this.
Polymarket, which calls itself a “prediction market,” invites you to place bets starting Thursday on 18 questions related to the Southern California wildfires, including: How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday? Will the Palisade Fire spread to Santa Monica on Sunday? When will the Palisades wildfire be 50% contained? Can all Los Angeles wildfires be completely contained by February?
“My guess is that most people don’t like the idea of individuals betting or making money on disasters and disasters,” said Nathaniel Fast, director of the Neeley Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision-Making at the University of Southern California.
The goal of Polymarket is to set the probability of something happening and then use collective opinion to adjust that probability on the fly.
For example, if the probability that the Palisades Wildfire will be contained on January 19th is 50% compared to 86% on Thursday, you could win $102 if you select “Yes” and $102 if you select “No” , you could win $571. The market adjusts opportunities, and opportunities adjust markets again.
In a statement to The Times, a Polymarket spokesperson said: “These markets address the same issues that cable news and X are discussing. We have proven that prediction markets can be invaluable to those seeking immediate quantitative data. alternative sources of information.
Quickly said: “I have a hard time imagining people logging into Polymarket to decide whether to evacuate.
“But on the other hand, if they can prove over and over again in events like this that they can actually produce accurate predictions, I think that could prove to be a useful tool in the future.”
Amid the deluge of social media misinformation generated by the event and its immediate aftermath, prediction markets driven in part by social media also present risks of their own.
Polymarket says on its website that this is one of the company’s criteria for opening prediction markets: “Is there a social benefit or news value to understanding the odds generated by the market?”
Quick: “It may create motivations that influence events, or, in the case of wildfires, it may lead to a callous attitude toward the suffering of others. If we gamify life-and-death issues, it may indeed play out in ways we don’t like Negative impact on culture and society.
Polymarket provides insights into the NFL playoffs, whether Donald Trump will follow through on his promise to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift will get engaged this year, and Elon Musk Odds on topics such as how many times you will tweet.
All is well. But this isn’t the first time Polymarket has used disaster as a basis for investing.
In 2023, after the Titan submersible disappeared at sea on its way to the Titanic, Polymarket asked: “Can the missing submarine be found by June 23?” Mother Jones found two investors, one who pledged Bet on yes, one bet on no.
“Despite opposing bets, both men … won thousands of dollars thanks to clever manipulation of the odds,” Mother Jones reports.
There is no comprehensive market. According to a company spokesperson, Polymarket “does not charge fees on any market and is not currently generating any revenue.”
That’s probably the only thing worse than a company profiting from human misfortune: a tech startup that allows a lot of people to profit from human misfortune.
Polymarket’s statement to The Times began: “We extend our deepest sympathies to everyone affected by the fires and thank first responders and ordinary Angelenos for their heroic work.”
As long as people can still bet money on disaster befalling ordinary people in Los Angeles, this statement rings hollow. Polymarket should reduce the likelihood of these wildfires. These six historic statements from 1954 still apply today: Have you no sense of decency?
