Yankees looking to acquire first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger From the Cubs, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Cubs also send cash to Yankees and acquire right-hander Cody Poteet. According to YES Network’s Jack Curry, the Yankees will receive $5MM. Jesse Rogers of ESPN says the price will be $2.50 this year and $2.50 next year. According to Passan, the second $2.5MM will go toward his buyout or 2026 salary, depending on his opt-out decision. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Bellinger has been informed that he will start center field for the Yankees.
Bellinger heading to the Bronx is a logical choice and has been rumored a lot lately. Offseason begins with Yankees loss Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo Come free agency and open up two holes in the outfield and one at first base. Since Bellinger has played outfield and as a starter, he has been considered in various ways as a possible fit for their 2025 plans. The Yankees long pursued Soto, but he ended up with the Mets, forcing the Yankees to develop several backup plans. They have since signed the lefty Max Fried and got the right hand Devin Williams Upgrade their rotation and bullpen.
Bellinger appears to be expendable to the Cubs for a few reasons. on the one hand, Peter Crow-Armstrong In 2024, he becomes a viable glove-first center fielder, Bellinger’s primary position the year before. Michael Busch Also occupied the first base position. and Ian Harp and Seiya Suzuki Bellinger was a little pinched in the outfield corners. The problem became more complicated when the Cubs acquired the team. Kyle Tucker From the Astros.
However, in addition to the roster crunch, the Cubs may also be motivated to trade Bellinger because of his declining performance. The Cubs bounced back on Bellinger in 2023 after enduring some tough years with the Dodgers while recovering from shoulder surgery. With $17.5MM guaranteed for one year, I hope he joins Bellinger.
He’s not quite back to that level, but is still valuable for the investment. He stole 20 bases and hit 26 home runs. His strikeout rate was just 15.6%. Reviews of his midfield defense have been mixed, but mostly close to league average. He also moves to first base at times. According to FanGraphs, he slashed .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ and 4.4 wins above replacement.
Maybe the Cubs would have been happy to leave then. They gave Bellinger a qualifying offer and don’t appear to have a high incentive to re-sign him, but neither do other clubs, as Bellinger remains unsigned as of late February. Ultimately, he and the Cubs agreed to a three-year, $8MM contract with an opt-out after each season.
In this type of deal, the best-case scenario for the club is for the player to perform well and then opt out. If a player doesn’t opt out, it means he doesn’t like his prospects in free agency, which could mean he gets injured or underperforms.
Bellinger’s production did decline relative to 2023, although it wasn’t catastrophic. He stole nine bases and hit 19 home runs. His strikeout rate is steady at 15.6%. He slashed .266/.325/.426 with a wRC+ of 109. He produced 2.2 fWAR in the first half of the year.
Going into the offseason, whether Bellinger would opt out was a fringe question. He could have accepted the $2.5MM buyout and taken his chance, leaving $52.5MM guaranteed. While he may be able to overcome the $50MM difference this winter, he decided to stay, perhaps due to the way the current contract is divided. He will make $27.5MM in 2025 with a $5 buyout on top of the $25MM in 2026. , returning to the public markets with greater returns. He thinks that’s more attractive than opting out this year.
It’s fair to conclude that the Cubs would rather he opt out. Trade rumors surrounding Bellinger have been circulating throughout the offseason, and now the Cubs have waived him, primarily for a salary cut. By taking on the majority of salary, the Yankees don’t have to give up much, although there are financial risks and the deal could do more harm than good.
If Bellinger performs particularly well in 2025, he will trigger the opt-out. That would allow the Yankees to pay him $27.5MM a year, which is their best-case scenario right now. However, if he underperforms or suffers a serious injury that ends the upcoming season, he will remain with the team in 2026 and the Yankees will be responsible for $22.5MM of his $25MM salary.
Bellinger has been a very inconsistent player throughout his career, so it’s anyone’s guess which outcome is more likely to happen next year. As mentioned earlier, he’s shown MVP upside, but then performed so poorly that he wasn’t drafted. He came back strong in 2023 but declined slightly in 2024.
That being said, it’s understandable that the Yankees would be interested in taking the risk. The free agent market is characterized by outfielders, e.g. Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santanderbut they may end up with a bigger guarantee than Bellinger. Santander is reportedly seeking a five-year deal and Hernandez a three-year deal, with both likely hoping for an average annual value of $200,000 or more.
They are both hit-first players with poor defense, while Bellinger has the ability to be a strong defender in the corners outfield or be passable in center field. the yankees hit Aaron Judge In 2024, he’s seen regularly in center field along with Verdugo and Soto at the corners, though Judge now appears to be returning to right field. It’s a smart switch because Judge has had a poor year and he’s about to turn 33, meaning long-term damage to his body has to be considered. If the Yankees re-signed Soto, they would likely keep Judge in center field, but after he signed with the Mets, reports surfaced that the club planned to move Judge back to right and Jason Dominguez Try center field work.
Now that they have signed Bellinger, it appears he is Plan A at center. As mentioned, advanced indicators are somewhat divided on his viability there. In over 4,000 innings, he has saved 10 defensive runs. However, most of the positive value came early in his career with the Dodgers. He has been average or below for four consecutive years. However, anything above average is more optimistic. This metric gives Bellinger a +19 rating over his career, putting him at par or better in every season of his career.
There may be situations where Dominguez seems like the better option and forces Bellinger into a corner, but there’s simply no guarantee he’ll be a capable major leaguer in 2025. He performed well in the minors and debuted with a bang in 2023, but then underwent Tommy John surgery later that year, which ruled him out for most of 2024. are on hold. He may still have a chance to take the left field job next to Bellinger and Judge, but nothing is guaranteed with guys like Iverson Pereira and spencer jones Give him some competition around him.
If the Yankees want to find a solution in center field, they don’t have many other options. Free agency is arguably dominated by glove priority Harrison Baderand after a bad experience trading him in 2022, they’re unlikely to sign him anyway. louis robert jr.despite all reports indicating the White Sox set a high asking price and despite Robert enduring another injured season.
There will be more to come.
