If the 2024-25 offseason has one defining feature so far (besides Juan Sotorecord-breaking contract), first and foremost the market for starting pitchers is very strong. The 2023-24 offseason is over and there are top weapons on the market, e.g. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery Hanging around the market until the calendar turns to March, right-handers Michael Wacha He began his re-upgrade with the Royals before free agency began, and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since. after right handed corbyn burns After agreeing to terms with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market when the calendar turned to January.
Perhaps the biggest exception is right-handers Jack FlahertyAt the start of the winter, MLBTR listed him as the eighth free agent of the offseason (fourth among starters) as part of our annual list of the 50 MLB Free Agents. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would sign a five-year, $11MM deal in free agency. That prediction appears to be at least correct, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of free agency. With the strong pitching market during the winter, and the fact that Flaherty was able to hit free agency without a qualifying offer thanks to a mid-season trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a good chance of landing a deal of this caliber.
On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs that the submission market is starting to cool down. Burns’ deal with Arizona before the new year comes with a strong average annual value and the potential for a lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly makes the deal The net present value is less than $200. MLBTR expects Burns to be signed to a seven-year, $2MM contract at the start of the winter, so while the reduction in net present value is more or less in line with what was expected during the offseason, in comparison, The deal pales in some respects. Max Fried It’s certainly not up to the $245 asking price reported by right-handers earlier in the winter.
If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool off a bit, Flaherty’s market may begin to disappear as spring training games approach. After all, we only have to look back to Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how the pitching market collapsed once they didn’t have enough time for a typical spring training. For now, however, Flaherty still appears to be enjoying a pretty strong market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Orioles have all been linked to the right-hander in recent days.
The Blue Jays and Giants have both been linked to most of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about expressing a desire to bring in impact talent this winter. Toronto was one of the clear finalists for Burns before he signed with Arizona, and while the Giants were also heavily linked to Burns, there were some signs of San Francisco following his deal with the Diamondbacks. Focus more on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants already have a first baseman attached Pete Alonsothe club’s interest in a pitcher like Flaherty may be more of a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to get the big bat they want. A similar situation is possible with the Blue Jays. It is understood the club has made an offer to the outfielder Anthony Santander Reports earlier this winter suggested there might just be room in Toronto’s budget for a major multi-year deal.
The Tigers could be in a similar position. While the club certainly has the salary flexibility to make multiple major multi-year additions if it wishes, President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris appears hesitant to make a major multi-year commitment this winter and instead Select login Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres One-year offer. That hasn’t stopped them from participating in some big free agency, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson To help stabilize a young rotation, it’s easy to imagine the club prioritizing a hitter if they decided to offer a player a nine-figure contract this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently linked to the third baseman Alex Bregman Santander also appears to be considering it.
Two teams that are generally eyeing pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and Cubs. Baltimore has been added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton The additions to their rotation this winter leave them with a bunch of potential starters that they don’t desperately need for another team. That being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burns as the ace coach, and with the emergence of ace coaches in 2023, Kyle Bledish Expected to miss at least the first half of 2025, it’s fair to assume the club would benefit from adding a player like Flaherty. To that end, they appear to remain on the fringes of the market, continuing to look for upgrades even after acquiring Morton last week.
As for Chicago, in some ways they seem best suited for Flaherty’s services. Cubs appear to be primarily offensive after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly;While there may be room at third base for another bat, they’re not close to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospects Matt Shaw Serves as a potential opening day starter at the position. However, there have been plenty of rumors about them adding to their pitching staff, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently stating that another round of the club’s rotation is “inevitable,” whether to improve depth or Bringing more impactful players to the team. Flaherty definitely falls into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs had been in contact with Flaherty, they were a little hesitant about his asking price at the time.
Flaherty has some motivation to wait at least a while before making a decision: the right-hander’s presence Riki Saaki in the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a number of teams, and rumor has it that he has met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Considering his unique status as a potential rotational player who could be acquired for just a minor league deal (and a significant portion of the club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine some eager to pitch when Sasaki becomes available. The team focused on him. The right-hander’s decision is due on January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case the club that missed out on Sasaki either increased its offer or entered the fray as a new potential suitor.
In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will pan out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mysterious team” swoop in and seal the deal? Will the right-hander land a deal in MLBTR’s predicted range? Will he fall short of or exceed expectations? Have your say in the poll below.
