Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sets spring training deadline for extension talks with Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He is eligible to become a free agent after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the biggest question facing the Blue Jays as they prepare for the final year of control of the All-Star first baseman. General manager Ross Atkins said at the end of the season that the Jayhawks would look to begin extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed those talks were ongoing in a recent interview with Abriando Sports (reported to Tributes from Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).
Guerrero reiterates his interest in staying in Toronto and ‘ready to goIf the Jays meet his asking price, he will sign an extension. However, “wThe hat they gave me was nothing close to what I wanted,” Guerrero said, noting that Toronto’s most recent offer was worth about $340. It is worth noting that this offer is available on Juan Soto Signing a 15-year, $765MM contract with the Mets completely reset the market for superstar players.
Time may be limited to close the existing gap between the two sides, and Guerrero said he has told management he will stop negotiations after the full first day of the Jayhawks’ spring training camp. It’s a somewhat unusual self-imposed deadline, as most players use Opening Day as the unofficial end point for reaching an extension. Obviously, extensions can be made at any time before a player enters free agency, but players typically prefer to focus solely on baseball once the season begins, so contract negotiations are usually limited to the offseason.
Of course, if negotiations are underway on the proverbial five-yard line before Opening Day and only a few final details need to be confirmed, it wouldn’t be unusual for some trade to be announced in the days or weeks of April. Likewise, if Guerrero and the Jays have ironed out most of the issues surrounding a very lucrative (and therefore fairly complicated) extension, he may not wrap up all negotiations in late February. That said, shortening the remaining negotiating window to roughly two months is a fairly public way of increasing the pressure on Toronto’s front office.
This is pure speculation on my part, but moving up the “deadline” could also be Guerrero’s way of leaving the door open for a trade. If an extension can’t be reached before spring training properly begins and the Blue Jays don’t believe Guerrero will re-sign next winter, the Jayhawks could try to trade Guerrero for some long-term assets before Opening Day. To be clear, if Toronto spends the rest of the offseason adding talent in order to contend for a championship again in 2025, it seems more likely that the Jays will keep Guerrero in order to keep their roster as strong as possible, which It could be a tight race.Beau Bichette nuclear.
The term of the $340MM offer was not specified, but the 10-year, $340MM deal “only” generates an average of $34MM in value per season per year, tied for 15th in baseball history. 9 years at $340 is an AAV of $37.77, which ranks seventh all-time behind Soto’s most recent deal, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheelerand Aaron Judge. The eight-year, $340MM deal is equivalent to $42.5MM in AAV and puts Guerrero behind Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer and Verlander.
However, Guerrero doesn’t turn 26 until March, so the eight-year deal only lasts through his age-33 season. Even a ten-year deal would only last Guerrero through his 35-year-old campaign, and a long-term deal in the $340 range would only lower the AAV even more. It’s unclear what Guerrero is looking for in terms of contract length, but in terms of pure dollars, it’s easy to see why he would turn down an offer worth slightly more than half of Soto (who also added to his contract). season) received from New York.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the disparity in production between Soto and Guerrero justifies the revenue disparity, although it’s not as large as one might think. Soto’s big 2024 season with the Yankees pushes his asking price over the cap, but looking at just his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit 160 home runs in 3,375 games with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 hitting .284/.421/.524 fWAR.
In his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero hit .288/.363/.500 in 3,540 PA with 160 total home runs, along with a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR. For both players, much of their value comes from their bats, as public defense and baserunning metrics show Guerrero and Soto to be well below average in both departments.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently discussed extending Guerrero’s contract and floated the idea of a deal worth between $500 and $600. Assuming no deferred money is involved, that would make Guerrero the second-highest-paid player in baseball history, behind Soto. “To the average fan, this may sound excessive…keep in mind that the Jayhawks would have to pay a premium to prevent Guerrero from testing the waters. If they lose him, their already disgruntled fans may revolt, ” Rosenthal wrote.
The latter is another important factor in Guerrero’s negotiations, as perhaps no baseball executive is in as hot a position as Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro. While the Blue Jays made the playoffs after rebuilding in 2020, 2022, and 2023, the club didn’t even win a game during those playoff trips, and Toronto’s record in 2024 Slumping to 74-88 could cause the Blue Jays to struggle.
Toronto’s vigorous pursuit of Ohtani last offseason and Soto this winter suggests the team’s owners are ready to put their best foot forward in the bidding for top talent, though whether the Jays believe Guerrero is on the same level as the other two superstars remains to be seen. It remains to be seen. Just a year ago, Guerrero finished with a mediocre 118 wRC+ games in 2023, raising questions about whether Guerrero was worth any kind of long-term investment. For comparison’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season by wRC+ was his 2019 campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA while also firing on all cylinders in the postseason, helping the Nationals win the World Series. Contest.
Guerrero’s representatives at Prime Agency would likely welcome a concrete look at Guerrero’s relationship with Soto, as it ties Guerrero, even subconsciously, to Soto’s elite salary level. Raphael DeversThe ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox was also often mentioned as compensation for Guerrero as Devers also enters his age-26 season. Guerrero has some statistical advantages (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons before the extension), so it’s reasonable to think he’ll make more than Devers got from Boston, but maybe the Blues The Birds’ figure of roughly $340 reflects Guerrero’s thinking only slightly better than Devers’.
Of course, it’s possible the Jays were willing to pay much more than $340, but they used that number as a preliminary gauge of Guerrero’s asking price after Soto’s contract was signed. There’s still plenty of time for the two sides to finally agree on an acceptable contract extension, and if some progress is made, Guerrero could push back the deadline in early spring, even if a new deal isn’t imminent just yet.
