Just less than a year ago, the Mariners acquired the second baseman Jorge Polanco Also arriving from the Twins as part of the five-player deal was right-hander Anthony DeScafani, who was traded to Seattle as part of the team. Robbie Ray The transaction occurred earlier in the same month. At the time of the deal, adding Polanco seemed like a coup for the Mariners, who were in desperate need of an upgrade. Colten Huang at second base and successfully took advantage of the fact that the Twins were facing payroll-cut orders and had plenty of infield depth.
This allows them to add a former All-Star who slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the past three seasons. Polanco even received multi-year control in the form of a $12MM team option ($750K buyout), which seemed like a no-brainer for the club when the deal was executed. Fast forward to the end of the 2024 season, however, and Polanco had arguably the worst full season of his career before undergoing knee surgery in October. With that in mind, no one should be surprised when the Mariners elect to decline the option of switching hitters and use the $11.25 savings in other areas of the lineup.
Since then, Polanco has been waiting for an opportunity in free agency. The infielder is expected to return to baseball action sometime this month and be fully ready for spring training, but his market remains fairly quiet. Astros reportedly have some level of interest in Polanco as backup plan if they fail to land Alex Bregmanbut they instead turned to the combination Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That seems likely to close the possibility of Polanco heading to Houston, and no other team has publicly been linked to the infielder.
It’s understandable that the club has some concerns about Polanco. In addition to coming off offseason surgery, there were some concerning signs of his performance last year, even beyond his raw performance. Polanco’s 29.2 percent strikeout rate is by far the worst of his 11-year MLB tenure. He has a strikeout rate of just 19.5% throughout his career, but his strikeout rate has been steadily increasing over the past few years. In 2021, he struck out just 18.3% of the time, the best season of his career so far. However, his strikeout rate has climbed every season since then, sitting at 21.3% in 2022, 25.7% in ’23, and finally reaching the 29.2% mentioned last year.
Even with Polanco having done well in previous years and showing little sign of turning around, this trend is still worrying. In 2021, he made contact on 81.6 percent of pitches, ranking 32nd among 132 qualified hitters. Last year, however, that number dropped to 73.6 percent, ranking 124th among 169 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. That’s a sharp drop, although it’s not itself to blame for Polanco’s production decline. After all, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact rates in 2022 and ’23 were also down relative to 2021, and Polanco still managed to stay productive.
Where Polanco succeeds in those years (but not 2024) is in the power department: His barrel rate is well above average at 10.2% in 2022, and it jumped to an excellent 13.8% two seasons ago. However, this dropped to 8.9% last year. Overall, that’s still above average, but a nearly five-point drop in batting average is sure to take away from a hitter’s power output. Polanco is no exception. Last year, he hit 14 home runs and 18 doubles in 343 games in 2023, and despite reaching base 136 more times than the year before, he hit just 16 home runs and 11 doubles.
While Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and disappearing authority are obvious reasons for concern, there is also some reason for optimism. His 9.8% walk rate is still well above average in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA is 24 points better than his .287 wOBA. This suggests that at least part of his poor performance last year was due to bad luck with the bat, and after his 92 wRC+ season for the Mariners, it’s easy to imagine him being an average or slightly above-average hitter hand.
Even considering Polanco’s lackluster defense at the base, a second baseman who can post a wRC+ in the 100-105 range could be a valuable regular, and it’s not hard to imagine Polanco being able to become one if healthy enough. Steady, two-win regular. Building on a solid foundation of production, Polanco could rediscover the power hitting or more contact-focused approach he had success with in previous seasons, and he figures to be one of the best players on a team that needs help this winter. third base—Especially for clubs that aren’t willing to do whatever it takes to bring Bregman in. Nolan Arenadoor Kim Ha Sung each year. Many teams, including the Yankees, Angels, Cubs and Pirates, could use help in the infield, and Polanco could be the right fit.
