How Marlins Should Buy Prospects

The Marlins added four players to their 40-man roster who lost 100 games last season. These Four New Acquisitions – Infielders Eric Wagmancatcher Liam Hicksinfielder Max Acosta and first baseman Matt Merwes — increasing their wages, which are currently among the lowest in the Netherlands, by… well, basically zero. Wagnerman signed a major league split contract as a free agent. Hicks was selected under Rule 5. Acosta arrives Jack Burger trading. Mavis was exchanged Vidalbruyan The latter was assigned a mission to Miami.
The only team currently projected to have a lower payroll than the Marlins is the Athletics, and the Athletics have been active enough this winter that it still looks like they could add a player or two to leapfrog the Fish. (A’s general manager David Forst has publicly stated that he hopes to add one or two more players.)
According to RosterResource, the Marlins’ current salary plan is $67MM. Their projected CBT amount is $84MM. Both figures are primarily due to the $12MM owed since launch Avisel Garciawhose four-year contract ends in 2025.
Even by Marlins standards, the 2025 salary is currently at a new low compared to recent seasons. Over the past three seasons, Miami’s salaries have been $84, $110 and $106 respectively. That’s not much, of course, but the numbers are light years ahead of current projections. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said the Marlins, like the Athletics, may need to spend some additional money to maintain their revenue-sharing status. They’re not as stingy as the Athletics have been in recent seasons, but the Fish are certainly not a model of aggressive roster manipulation. Miami’s recent offseason activity (or lack thereof) doesn’t bode well for subsequent additions. The only free agent they signed last offseason was Tim Anderson One-year, $5MM deal.
Miami spent a total of $25MM Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto Last season, although that was under a different management regime. Second-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made it clear through actions, not words, that he has zero confidence that the team he inherits will return to contention after an unexpected playoff berth in 2023.
Fish make trade just over a month into 2024 season Louis Alas As for the Padres, when the deadline came, they traded away a staggering nine players to start the new season. In just three months, Bendix has traded nearly 40% of his Opening Day roster (including JT Chargois and Vaska Brazobanwho were pulled from the Opening Day roster due to injuries and visa issues, respectively. Jesus Luzardo Barring injuries, Miami would likely trade 11 of the club’s 26 players on Opening Day.
Given these trends, there’s no reason to think the Marlins will spend any meaningful money on their upcoming roster. Although the concept of “buying” leads has been brought up so much more than it’s actually been put into practice that I’m often reluctant to spend too much time thinking about it. However, given not only the specific position the Marlins find themselves in, but the broader context of this offseason, the Marlins are missing out if they don’t try more seriously to push for this type of trade.

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