The Dodgers have added another star from Japan. Riki Saaki It was announced Friday night that he would sign with Los Angeles. Wasserman customers will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which could be finalized any time before the evening of January 23.
As an international amateur, Sasaki can only sign a minor league contract with a limited signing bonus limit. He won’t take up a 40-man roster spot right away, although the team will certainly draft him to an MLB roster before Opening Day. In the end, this is a rather unsurprising result, although other results sometimes seem somewhat possible. The Dodgers have long been viewed as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and despite attempts by the Padres and Blue Jays to pull off surprises, the most likely outcome has now become a reality.
Sasaki’s free agency has been highly anticipated for some time. In 2021, at the age of 19, he made his debut in the Japanese Professional Baseball League and has achieved outstanding results in the past few years. With triple-digit fastball velocity and lethal distribution, he’s managed to post a 2.10 ERA in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7 percent of batters and limited his walk rate to 5.7 percent.
A performance like this would make him one of the top free agents this season or any offseason, which would typically net him a huge salary. However, Sasaki seems determined to start his major league career as soon as possible and doesn’t care too much about money.
If he waits until age 25, he will be considered a professional under MLB rules and therefore be able to sign for whatever amount the market can afford. That’s the route taken Yoshinobu YamamotoLast offseason, he received $325MM in guaranteed money from the Dodgers.
But Sasaki has just turned 23, which means he is considered an amateur and therefore subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under this system, each team is allocated a certain amount of money each year to spend on international amateur players. This year, each team received $5-8MM, which is a pittance compared to the amount Yamamoto received. This at least makes it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since big-spending clubs can’t beat smaller clubs like so many other free agents.
However, despite a theoretically level playing field, there are still plenty of good reasons to expect the Dodgers to win. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolff haven’t revealed much about player preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which tends to be attractive to players from Asia due to its relative proximity. They have a proven track record of success on the field, making the playoffs every year since 2013 and winning the World Series just a few months ago. They also invited Yamamoto and several other Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani.
It’s unclear how much Sasaki will weigh these factors compared to others. Wolff dismissed the idea that Sasaki was concerned about the presence of other Japanese players. He also said last month that Sasaki might prefer smaller markets due to some friction with the media while in Japan.
There is some argument that could be made considering the circumstances in which he would rather be elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers, with Sasaki reportedly having a close relationship with the current Padres Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, which may give them the ability to reduce Sasaki’s exposure to the media. The fact that they are Canada’s only MLB team also theoretically provides more endorsement opportunities for Japanese companies rather than sharing the Los Angeles market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also have a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more bonus pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.
While there has been some short-term drama this offseason, the most obvious thing has already happened. Sasaki joins a team that already includes stars like Ohtani and Yamamoto; Mookie Bates and freddie freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games, and now they’ve added another extremely talented player to the mix.
The addition of Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster, but it’s also huge from a financial standpoint. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to play at the league’s lowest level this year until he is eligible for arbitration or signs a contract extension. This is a big deal for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe the aforementioned stars a ton of money. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernandez There are many others.
It also gives them an abundance of embarrassment in the rotation, at least in terms of sheer talent. Their rotation now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. it’s almost inevitable Clayton Kershaw Will eventually re-sign. Even with every Gavin Stone, Emmitt Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and Ruian River Since the Dodgers will miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers should have eight or nine players in their rotation. Landon Nack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and the once-touted rookie. Bobby Miller Both are depth starters.
That’s a staggering amount of talent for a team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year despite their postseason rotation. This year, the rotation should be an advantage heading into October. This is despite the fact that nearly everyone on the team is at risk for injury. Glasnow never logged more than 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto suffered a rotator cuff strain in his first MLB season and was limited to 18 starts. Snell only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season while recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery in late 2023 and did not play last year.
Sasaki itself has a number of durability issues. In four years at NPB, he averaged less than 100 innings per season. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 innings in 18 games a year ago. Sasaki suffered a double injury in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.
The Dodgers are happy to sacrifice some IL minutes for a rate advantage. Los Angeles doesn’t put much emphasis on bulk innings. They’re content to accept the risk of injury as they pursue pitchers with top-tier rotation upside. Of course, this is made possible in part by their resources, although money has not been a factor for Sasaki.
Every team would be happy to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers are also required to pay a $1.3MM submission fee to the Chiba Rakuten Marines, the pitcher’s NPB team. The publishing fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. Because Sasaki’s bonuses are capped at millions of dollars, the Marine will only receive 20 percent of the bonuses he receives.
The investment amount for Japan’s most talented pitcher is $7.8MM. The Dodgers signed arguably the NPB’s best pitcher in back-to-back offseasons. They would keep Sasaki tied to any rookie promotion within the standard six-year team-control window. Over the next three seasons, his salary will be close to the league minimum. He will then go through a three-year arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding on a contract extension to circumvent bonus pool restrictions. While there is no official deadline for when the Dodgers can re-sign Sasaki, they are currently unable to reach any kind of unofficial long-term deal.
The Dodgers start this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. On January 15, they had $5.1462MM available to spend on international amateur players. They bolstered their roster by trading minor league outfielders Dylan Campbell Go to Phillies and send outfield prospects Arnaldo Lantigua Going to Cincinnati tonight. Their exact prize distribution is unclear, but Sasaki will receive the vast majority of the prize pool. This is a trade every team would be happy to make for a potential plug-and-play ace.
It’s a cruel blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were ruled out. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face a tougher challenge in the NFC West. The Blue Jays finished second with another free agent talent. Toronto lost to Ohtani, Juan Soto, corbyn burns and Sasaki (among others) just the past two offseasons.
Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Photo courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.
