The Pirates added to their pitching staff on Friday, announcing a one-year deal with the free agent left-hander Caleb Ferguson The company will reportedly pay $3MM to Excel Sports customers. The Buccaneers have open roster spots and don’t need to make corresponding moves.
Ferguson, 28, has been a reliable left-handed reliever in the majors for several years. He missed the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but had solid production in the three seasons before that and the three seasons since. Overall, he has logged 261 2/3 innings and allowed 3.68 earned runs per nine innings. His 9.4% walk rate is slightly above average, but barely above average, while his 27.5% strikeout rate is a little better than par, and his 45.6% ground ball rate is also above average.
His ERA is up slightly in 2024, but digging into the numbers suggests he’s as efficient as ever, with just some bad luck leading to the extra runs. Between the Yankees and Astros, he pitched 54 1/3 innings with a 4.64 ERA. But his 26.9% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate are all very close to his career standards. His .340 batting average and 66.6% batting average in games are both in the unfortunate part of average, which is why metrics like his 3.74 FIP and 3.43 SIERA are closer to his career ERA.
He’s a no-brainer for the Buccaneers, who lost every Aroldis Chapman, Jaylen Bueckers and Ryan Borucki Becomes a free agent after the season. The departure of those three lefties left them with Joey Wentzclaimed off waivers in September, has a career ERA of 5.56 and is the only left-handed reliever on the roster. Ferguson immediately emerged as the top lefty in Pittsburgh’s bullpen.
That doesn’t mean he’ll be limited to special roles, as his disagreements aren’t too drastic. He’s naturally better against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .231/.333/.375 batting line during his career, but right-handed hitters have a just .245 batting line against him. /.321/.381. He has six career saves and 49 walks, so perhaps he’ll move into a reserve role depending on what other moves the Pirates make for the bullpen this winter.
Ferguson also seems likely to be in the rotation, as MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf reports the Pirates will make him available in spring training. This will be an interesting transition point for Ferguson, who has been in the bullpen almost exclusively throughout his major league career. He does have 14 starts statistically, but most of them were “openers” that lasted only an inning or two.
He did start in the minor leagues, though, so this isn’t completely foreign to him. As mentioned, his distribution is fairly neutral, which may allow him to pitch throughout the lineup. As a reliever, his pitching mix is also quite diverse. According to Statcast, he threw at least four different pitches 9.8 percent of the time last year: four-seamer, sinker, cutter and sand ball. He wasn’t overly reliant on any one pitch, with a top four-seamer usage rate of 43.3%. Statcast also classifies 0.2% of his pitches as sweepers.
Converting relievers into starting pitchers has become a popular trend in recent years, e.g. Seth Lugo, McCulkin, Garrett Crochet and Reynaldo Lopez Some better success stories. On the other hand, the results are similar to Jordan Hicks is mixed, and Ajay Pook The conversion was quickly abandoned.
It’s an understandable strategy given the high prices of starting pitchers, as even high-risk pitching pilots commanded eight-figure prices this winter. Walker Buehler Got $21.05MM after a bad year. guys like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander Despite being quite old by major league standards and coming off an injury-plagued season, he was paid $15MM.
Investing $3MM in Ferguson and turning him into a passable back-end starter might be a good deal, but there’s reason to think it might not come to fruition. As mentioned before, the Pirates clearly need a left-handed reliever, and the rotation is the strongest part of the lineup. They will enter the new season with a strong starting core Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mickey Kellerand people like Belifalt, John Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, bubba chandler and thomas harrington All backend candidates.
The simplest and probably most likely outcome is that the Pirates just use these players in the rotation and move Ferguson to the bullpen, but there’s no harm in giving him a stretch in the spring to see what that looks like. It’s much easier to switch from a long outing to a shorter one early in the year than it is to go long in the middle of the season. Spring is a good time to do some experimentation, as Ferguson could easily slide to the bullpen if that doesn’t work or the Pirates end up preferring another arm for the role.
At the very least, expanding Ferguson’s capabilities as a starter in spring training could open the door for him to become a true multi-inning bullpen prospect. He struck out more than an inning 11 times last year — more in Houston after the trade than with the Yankees before the trade — but he peaked in two-inning games. Given his pitching mix and neutral split, he could be successful in slightly longer relief outings while also being ready for the occasional start or opener in the bullpen.
Noah Hills of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com first reported the terms of the deal.
