Dodgers and lefties Tanner Scott According to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the two sides have reached agreement on a four-year deal worth $720,000. According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Scott’s contract includes deferred payments and a signing bonus. FanSided’s Robert Murray reports the signing bonus is $20MM, and the contract includes $21MM in deferred payments.
Scott ranks 14th among this winter’s free agents on MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 MLB Free Agents, and we predict the left-hander will sign a four-year, $56MM deal. His deal with Los Angeles is well above that, but that’s not necessarily surprising as reports earlier this month suggested Scott could be in line for a deal worth around $20MM per year. Ultimately, the deal didn’t go very far, although his $18MM AAV is still quite premium for his position. Scott is tied for third-most all-time relief pitcher AAV in free agency, according to MLBTR’s contract tracker Liam HendricksTrade with White Sox, both sides trail only Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader. At the same time, this is the fifth-highest total guaranteed money for a reliever on the free agent market, behind Diaz, Hader, Aroldis Chapmanand Kenley Johnson.
The $21MM in deferred money in the deal likely lowers the net present value of the contract below that of an elite closer at this level, but it’s hard to deny that Scott’s incredible numbers over the past two seasons belong to this elite. company. Last year, he was one of the best relievers in the game with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers are even stronger in 2023, with a 33.9% strikeout rate, 2.31 ERA, and 2.17 FIP. Among eligible relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. only Felix Bautista orioles and Cade Smith The Guardians have 2 players ranked higher than Scott in both categories, and neither will see action at the major league level in 2023 and ’24.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Scott is necessarily completely right. The lefty struggled with command early in his career, and those issues were key factors in the lefty’s 4.61 ERA and 3.91 FIP in his first six seasons in the majors. That puts Scott behind many of his peers, who had a long record of late-inning relievers, and even last season, Scott walked 12.2 percent more than his opponents. Scott has managed to remain elite despite getting a lot of free passes over the past two seasons by keeping the ball in the park, and the changes he’s made to improve his batting results appear to be sustainable. Continuous. Prior to the 2023 season, opponents were hitting 5.4 percent of Scott’s at-bats, but over the past two seasons, that number has dropped to just 4.0 percent. Likewise, Scott’s hard-hit rate has dropped from 36.2% in his career through 2023 to 26.7% over the past two seasons.
More coming soon…
