This week’s mailbag covers how free agency can get it right Jack Flaherty It may be close to his current situation, whether Alex Bregman It makes sense for the Nationals to accuse the Dodgers of having a predetermined trade Riki SaakiPirates’ low-cost right field option, how Giants adapt with bats, comparison Jordan Montgomery, Tyjuan Walkerand Marcus Stromanwhy the twins collapsed, and more.
Lance asked:
Given the urgency and value of quality starting pitching, it’s been a bit of a surprise to see what Jack Flaherty has done so far in free agency. Will he get a “better” contract next offseason if he chooses a long-term (5 year) deal with a lower AAV than expected/preferred, rather than choosing a shorter-term deal that could saddle him with a qualifying offer?
I saw a little Carlos Roden Parallel here. Rodon, who had a stunning breakout year with the White Sox in 2021, enters the market with no qualifying offers but a questionable health record. So he got two years and a $44MM opt-out from the Giants, had a better season, got a QO, and still got a $16MM contract.
Rodon’s contract with the Giants came after the lockout, which was an unorthodox winter for all free agents. But he was only 29 at the time, and I imagine he had a long-term offer with a lower AAV, like you mentioned with Flaherty. If so, he made a lot of money for himself by not accepting these types of deals.
This works out great for Rodon as he dominates in 2022. He doesn’t turn 30 until October, so he’s in a good position to take a short-term deal (with an opt-out if it’s a multi-year deal) and then get back on the market even with a QO. If he really wanted to be strategic, he could sign with a team at the deadline that might trade him and avoid the QO again. If Flaherty’s performance in 2025 is good but not great, he could also be considered for QO.
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