Cubs, Astros announce trade that will send outfielder Kyle Tucker Heading to Chicago, with the infielders Isaac Paredesright handed Hayden Wesneski and prospects Cam Smith Head to Houston.
Just a few weeks ago, this move would have been completely shocking. Tucker is a vital part of the Astros dynasty and one of the best players in baseball in recent seasons. But over the past few weeks, reports have surfaced that the Astros are willing to listen to offers for Tucker as they look to balance their desire to compete with some financial concerns. Negotiations seemed to begin quickly, and Houston found an offer they thought was too good to refuse.
Tucker, 28 in January, was one of many high-profile draft picks who went on to become part of Houston’s championship core. The club has struggled over the past decade, using high draft picks to select players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After signing failed Brady AikenAs the No. 1 overall pick in 2014, they received a compensatory pick in the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the top five picks in 2015, using the second overall pick to draft Alex Bregman Tucker was selected fifth overall.
Both drafts were huge successes, with both Bregman and Tucker becoming major league All-Stars. The trade now officially ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and may also poetically signal the end for Bregman. Houston decision makers have long made re-signing Bregman, who is currently a free agent, a top offseason priority. However, the two sides reportedly remain far apart in negotiations, and a move to Paredes could be a sign that Bregman won’t ultimately return to Houston.
Tucker, who turned 28 in January, hit 89 home runs from 2021 to 2023. He hit 30 points in his first two seasons and hit 29 points in the third. He also stole 69 bases during that time, had above-average walk and strikeout rates, and played strong defense. His combined line in that time was .278/.353/.517, which resulted in a 138 wRC+, which suggested he was 38% better than league average. In 2024, he missed about three months with a tibia fracture, but his limited performance was stronger. He hit 23 home runs in just 78 games, and his .289/.408/.585 line resulted in a 180 wRC+.
Putting all of these traits together, Tucker is about five wins above replacement in each of the 2021-2023 seasons, according to FanGraphs. In 2024, he posted 4.2 fWAR despite missing about half the year. He has 19.1 fWAR between 2021 and 2024, which ranks him 13th among MLB position players, despite playing fewer games than everyone before him due to injuries.
Unlike some other clubs, the Astros are willing to let their star players get paid elsewhere. Their response to Correa, Springer and Gerrit Coleand subsequently signed with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees. This is consistent with a general reluctance to engage in large-scale transactions or pay competitive balancing taxes. As MLBTR’s contract tracker shows, Jose AltuveThe six-year extension in 2018, worth $157.5MM, was the largest deal in franchise history in both years and dollars. The Astros exceeded the CBT line in 2020 but did not pay any tax as the system was shelved during the shortened season. 2024 is the first time they cross the line and actually have to pay taxes.
Heading into this winter, general manager Dana Brown suggested the club needed to “get a little creative” with its budget. Owner Jim Crane later pushed back on that stance somewhat, but it appears the financial constraints are real. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman $156, but he’s looking for something closer to $200.
Tucker’s earning power next winter may be even higher than Bregman’s right now. Bregman is now entering his age-31 season, while Tucker will enter his age-29 season next winter.
The Astros likely believed they were unlikely to reach a long-term deal with any player and entered into trade talks with Tucker, an offer that would have been significant to them. MLBTR writer Matt Swartz projects Tucker’s 2025 salary at $15.8MM, with Tucker’s salary taken off the 2025 books. Turning those savings to Bregman is still a possibility, but they also found a potential replacement for Paredes.
Over the past three years, Paredes hit 70 home runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He also bounces around in the infield, although he does that more at third base than anywhere else. His defense in the hot corner has been close to average, but that still makes him about a 3-4 fWAR player as of late. He’s expected to make $6.9MM through arbitration next year and can remain under control over the next two seasons.
Going to Houston could be an especially good fit for him, considering that much of his home run power comes from pulling the ball toward the foul pole. As MLB.com’s Sarah Langs points out, if he plays all of his games in Houston and is able to take advantage of the Crawford box, his 19 home run total in 2024 would be 26 indivual.
It’s still possible Houston could re-sign Bregman and move Paredes to first base as the club is also looking for help, but time will tell how feasible that is. Houston could find a cheaper solution at first base and keep Paredes at third base for the next few seasons.
Acquiring Smith also gives the Astros a potential third baseman for the future. He had just been drafted 14th overall by the Cubs a few months earlier and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his pro debut, playing 32 games at three different levels before eventually earning the honors. Double-A. If the Astros stick with Paredes at third, Smith could push him for the job in the coming years and Paredes eventually crosses the diamond.
The Astros also added some pitching depth in the deal with Wesneski. The 27-year-old has a decent base hit rate so far in his career, but issues with the long ball have led to a lot of base runs. In 190 career innings so far, he has a strikeout rate of 23%, a walk rate of 7.6%, and a ground ball rate of 43%. But 35 home runs, a 16.7% hit rate per fly ball and a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros can help him keep the ball in the park, he could be a part of their pitching staff for years to come. He has less than two years of service under his belt, so he could be retained for five more seasons.
There are a lot of question marks with the team’s pitching right now. per mccullers, Luis Garcia, Christian Javier and french justice of the peace Having missed all or part of 2024 due to notable arm surgery, these guys are a question mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez Also a trade candidate like Tucker, as his salary will reach eight figures and he is still a year away from free agency. Hunter Brown This year’s season is uneven. Ronel Blanco Huge deal for Houston, but fairly limited in terms of starting experience. Spencer Alehti He had a good rookie season, but it’s hard to count on him at this point.
In the bullpen, Ryan Pressley is another trade candidate. Next year, the final season of his contract, his annual salary will be $14. Wesneski has served as both a starter and reliever during his career, so he can help Houston in both areas.
There’s a lot to give up for the Cubs, especially looking back on their acquisition of Paredes. they just sent Christopher Morel, Hunter Big and Ty Johnson Joined the Rays a few months ago and acquired Paredes at the summer deadline. In a sense, they gave up those three players plus Smith and Weneski just to get Tucker for one season.
But they pay this price for good reason. The club has hovered around .500 in recent years, with a team filled with good players but lacking in truly elite players. They also have a very strong pipeline of prospects, some of whom are vying for major league playing time. They’re unwilling to pay top dollar for free agents, so a big trade seems to be their best way to upgrade their roster.
Tucker certainly qualifies. As mentioned before, he’s been one of the best position players in the majors lately and immediately became the Cubs’ best player. Perhaps the Cubs will seek to re-sign Tucker, but that would require a very high-profile contract, which they haven’t offered recently. Even if Tucker only plays one year at Wrigley, the Cubs can at least recoup draft compensation by making him a qualifying offer after 2025.
In addition, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is entering the final year of his contract. With the Cardinals gearing up for next year and the Reds and Pirates still trying to emerge from their rebuilds, the Cubs have a window to take a step forward, propel the Brewers into the division and provide Hoyer with some additional job security.
It’s also possible they won’t miss any of the pieces they gave up too much, even though they would make sense to Houston. As mentioned before, the Cubs have a great farm system. They currently have six players on the Baseball America Top 100 list, not even including Smith. While giving up a recent first-round pick certainly hurt, the farm overall is still in good shape.
The farm may also be able to provide a replacement for Paredes immediately. One of the club’s most promising players is Matt Shawhe played some center infield, but mostly third. He split time between Double-A and Triple-A last season, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs feel Shaw is ready to make the jump to the majors, that could make Paredes a victim. Wesneski is also a talented pitcher, but he was left out of Chicago’s rotation plans and was primarily used in a swing role.
This is a huge move for both clubs and will certainly lead to more changes, especially for the Cubs. Even before Tucker was added, they already had a crowded outfield combination. they also have Peter Crow-Armstrong, Ian Harp, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellingernot to mention the prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcantara and Owen Casey. They have reportedly been trying to work out a deal involving either Bellinger or Suzuki. Both Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making them difficult to move. Bellinger has the option to opt out after 2025, which also makes him a tricky trade candidate.
Regardless, leaving the team felt inevitable. The Yankees have been linked to both Tucker and Bellinger, so now that they didn’t get Tucker, they may focus more on the latter now.
What remains unknown for the Astros is whether the door is completely closed on Bregman. It certainly feels like that might be the case, although a path back to Houston isn’t impossible. RosterResource estimates their competitive balance tax at $225, $16 below next year’s base threshold of $241. Signing Bregman would definitely bring them to their knees, although not that much now that Tucker is gone. In theory, they could also reduce their numbers by trading Valdez or Pressley. Then again, they’ve been talking about signing Bregman to a new deal for two years but it didn’t happen, so maybe the door is finally closing.
It’s unclear whether Houston is happy with the outfield without Tucker. Jordan Alvarez Was a powerful hitter but was often relegated to DH duties due to ongoing knee issues. Jack Meyers, Chas McCormick and Tyler Trammell There are other options on the roster, as well as utility types such as Mauricio Dupont and Shay Whitcomb. The team will obviously be weaker without Tucker, so perhaps the Astros will look to strengthen the team in the coming weeks and months.
Time will tell how this move affects both clubs throughout the offseason. But today, the Cubs added a huge talent to the roster without giving up anything truly heartbreaking. The Astros lose a huge talent but can make up for his considerable value in the short term while clearly helping themselves in the long run.
Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros are “circling” a trade involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first mentioned Weneski’s selection. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the news that the deal was complete.
