As free agency develops this offseason and spring training approaches next month, a report tonight from Ken Rosenthal and Will Salmon of The Athletic suggests some of the key free agents still available are Weighing the likelihood of a turnaround, short-term deals have a higher average annual value, the so-called “Boras Four” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapmanand Jordan Montgomery They did just that last winter after not finding the long-term deal they were hoping to get in free agency.
Per Rosenthal and Salmon, outfielders Anthony Santander and right-handers Jack Flaherty Both sides are now willing to consider such deals. Salmon also confirmed previous reports about first baseman camp Pete Alonso A three-year offer has been made to the Mets that includes multiple opt-outs, although it’s unclear whether he would be willing to accept similar short-term offers from other clubs.
This is a significant update to the market for all three players. Both Santander and Flaherty are reportedly seeking five-year deals that could reach nine figures. Santander has reportedly received a contract offer from the Blue Jays as of last week, though it seems likely that offer won’t be for the switch-hitter considering he’s now willing to explore a short-term deal. It’s easy to imagine that the possibility of acquiring high-end free agents on short-term deals would open up the market for these players, or perhaps convince teams already connected with players to take their pursuit more seriously.
Flaherty, for example, has been linked to the Cubs before, but it has been suggested that Chicago (which signed Bellinger to a short-term, opt-out blockbuster deal last winter) might be interested in the right-hander. Asking price should be taken with a grain of salt. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been linked to Flaherty and Santander but remain opportunistic in free agency, signing them to one-year deals Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb Improve their roster without making a long-term commitment. In theory, both clubs could be tempted to step up if their target is now willing to consider a short-term deal.
While short-term deals are attractive to teams as a way to mitigate the risks associated with certain free agents, they can still come with complications. While the deal Snell and Chapman signed last winter in San Francisco was an obvious success for both sides, Snell dominated games in a Giants uniform before signing a new deal in Los Angeles in November. A lucrative deal, while Chapman enjoyed a resurgent season and re-signed with the club Not all such deals work out so well in the long run. Montgomery’s trade to Arizona quickly turned into a disaster as the lefty endured the worst season of his career, was demoted to the bullpen and was considered a potential salary move by the Diamondbacks this winter. Store. Bellinger, meanwhile, had a solid but unspectacular season in Chicago, which led the Cubs to give up his salary in a trade with the Yankees last month to create a hole in the lineup, to add a more impactful bat Kyle Tucker.
Despite these potential drawbacks, it’s easy to see why clubs would prefer short-term contracts rather than ones that leave them stranded during a player’s decline phase. After all, the Cubs could still get rid of most of Bellinger’s money in a trade even after a lackluster 2024 season, and the Diamondbacks could end up doing the same even after Montgomery’s disastrous season. If either party is on a long-term contract with greater overall guarantees, it becomes more difficult to swing these trades, even though their average average value may be lower.
There are pros and cons to this approach for players. Of course, there’s a risk that injuries or poor performance will cause them to enter the market with a lower value than they originally passed through free agency. In Flaherty’s case, he’s not currently subject to a qualifying offer, and accepting a short-term deal comes with some additional risk, as even a highly successful season might not end up being the kind of thing he was hoping for. Lucrative long-term contracts. However, for a player like Santander who has already been labeled a QO, signing a short-term deal and becoming a free agent after another strong season could boost his value even more in the future. Unencumbered re-entry into free agency.
While a willingness to consider short-term, high-AAV offers should open up the market to some degree for these players, that doesn’t mean a massive shakeup is guaranteed to happen. Such a high annual salary is considered a hurdle for clubs that are in or on the edge of the luxury tax, as well as those facing budget constraints. For example, Rosenthal and Salmon suggested Alonso could seek a deal worth $31.1 per year to break the first baseman’s AAV record. While this seems speculative to the pair, and they continue to recommend deferring funding, which would lower the net present value involved, even an AAV in the $25 to $30 range is a number that most would consider .
