For baseball teams, things change a lot during the year. Around this time in 2024, the Fangraphs brought the Tigers a 28.9% chance to make the playoffs and took the Cardinals as a favorite to win the Central National League.
Detroit’s first half midfield appears, sells on deadline, trades Jack Flaherty Seek out for prospects from the Dodgers. They flocked into the playoffs without Flaherty and then re-signed him this winter, now heading into 2025 with a clear contender. Cardinals keep hope for most of 2024 Erick Fedde,,,,, Tommy Pham and Sean Armstrong On the deadline. But when that was insufficient, they decided to press the reset button and didn’t seem to be planning on competing anytime soon. Even their offseason restart plans were broken, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block the front desk transactions, surely hoping to make them.
Entering 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the widest possible outcomes. On the one hand, many rosters were the same clubs that played at a very stable 90 win rate in the 2020-23 period. They had an injured season in 2024, but strengthened their roster in the winter, trying to recompetitively in 2025. With the playoffs expanding, it is entirely possible to re-enter the game this year.
The Eastern Conference seems to be very open. The Fanggraphs projected rankings will have all five clubs, with 35-71% of the chances getting the playoffs, compared to 38.3%. Pecota points for the baseball prospectus are somewhat similar, with Jays at 48.5%, and no clubs above 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only Angels, Track and White Sox below that.
At this point, the other side of the coin is well known. The club is losing control of digital key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It is most notable because he is an upcoming free agent and the club cannot sign long-term deals. The same is true Bo Bichetteanother long-term core work of the club. Chris Bassitt,,,,, Max Shezer,,,,, Chad Green and Erik Swanson It is also planned to be on the open market this fall. George Springer,,,,, Kevin Gausman,,,,, YimiGarcía,,,,, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk After 2026, as a free agent. José Berríos You can join the latter group by exiting the last two years of his deal. If things don’t go well, all of these could be trade candidates this summer.
This situation extends beyond the lineup. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly joining the final year of the contract. General Manager Ross Atkins reportedly signed only in 2026. Manager John Schneider signed the club options for 2026 in 2025. In baseball, expecting a bad season can lead to significant changes. If Jays is bad again in 2025, no one will be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.
Even if the team does manage to sort out a good season in 2025, there will be questions to answer the future. As mentioned earlier, in that player in the upcoming winter or after, several players are eligible for free agent qualifications.
It’s hard to say whether they can replace some of these players internally. The industry evaluation of the entire system is not strong. Baseball America ranks 23rd in the league in the farm system. ESPN’s Athletic and Kiley McDaniel’s Keith Law recently ranked them 24th.
This isn’t necessarily a shock, as the club has been ranking the main points in the major league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer rejected qualified offers, so Jays had to waive the draft pick for each trade. The same goes for the upcoming draft Anthony Santander Also rejected Qo.
They ended up trading three of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022. They sent Jordan Groshans Arrive at marlin Anthony Bass/Zach Pop trade, Austin Martin Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund Go to track and field Matt Chapman trading. The other two Alek Manoah and Brandon Barrieranow all have recovered from Tommy John’s surgery. Other notable prospects Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis Back from TJS, too.
This makes the club clearly lack high-end talents. Baseball America has only one Jay in the top 100, and Tiedemann is actually the last spot. There are two or three Jays on the list of Fangraphs, ESPN, MLB pipelines and laws, but no one in the top 60.
Those seeking optimism can focus on the number of people who are in the top 100 boundaries or just outside that designation. In addition to the recent top 100 list, Baseball America has released a list of every player who has received at least one vote from one of the writers. They build the top 100 by having several contributors submit the top 150 rankings, and then use a dot system to combine these different lists.
As mentioned earlier, Jayce ended up having only one person there, Tiedemann took the last place, but he was one of seven different players. This means at least one BA employee considers Jack Bruce,,,,, Arjun Nimmala,,,,, Alan Roden,,,,, Josh Kasevich,,,,, Orelvis Martínez or Trey YesAvage Become a top 100 person in the boundaries. Some of them appear on the top 100 list of other links. On the BA’s voting list, only one club has more than 11 players, while some clubs have only three players.
The volume of the Jays system also appears to be on the Zips of Dan Szymborski in Fangraphs. Zips has five players in the top 100 and six players in the top 500. In the latter category, only three clubs lead. The Rays have 24, and the Red and White Sox are at the age of 21.
This number of assessments may match the observations of anyone who is serious about following the club. They have a bunch of people who aren’t really considered top prospects, but seem capable of becoming a major league in the near future. This includes like Will Wagner,,,,, Joey Loperfido,,,,, Jonatan Clase,,,,, Charles McAdoo,,,,, RJ Schreck and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some people who are no longer prospects but are not fully established but still have some future potential, e.g. Bowden Francis,,,,, Davis Schneider,,,,, Nathan Lukes,,,,, Leo and Addison Barger.
Maybe some good developments there might make the future look better. But even if this passes, there is still an unsolved issue with the power of the club’s star. Club attempts to sign an image Shohei Ohtani,,,,, Juan Soto,,,,, Corbin Burnes And others just started very short. As mentioned earlier, their proposal for Guerrero did not work.
All of these missed benefits and the massive sectors of the upcoming free agents is that future payrolls are clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berios, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez Will be guaranteed for transactions. Berríos withdrew after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can quit after 2027, although clubs can make these opt-out by triggering club options. The Gimeénez deal can be guaranteed through 2029 and offers 2030 club options.
Although Guerrero has not signed a long-term agreement yet, he does open the door if the club circles him, considering future offers. He may also be in contact with free agents and re-signing, just like the way celebrity players like Judge Aaron and Pete Alonso Re-signed with the Yankees and the Mets respectively. Jays Kyle Tucker,,,,, Murakami Munataka,,,,, Dylan stops or Zach Gallen.
When starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “Transfer Sand,” “War Fog,” “In the Air,” “Multiverse,” or “Horizon” in the title. The point I hope to make is that there is little to know right now. They’re good this year, but it’s equally likely to make them bad. Going into the playoffs is totally rational, but everyone can trade and everyone can be fired. They can see several of the many youngsters step up their efforts and solidify their future works, offsetting the departure of the upcoming free agent. The system may seem barren when they start rebuilding for a year. They can sign large contracts to change the franchise, or they can sign them.
Many fans have made up their minds about the Blue Jays, but it seems like everything will get a lot to be sure of this year’s game. Whatever the result, it should be interesting.
