Just before the holidays, the first base and DH markets are in full swing, with many players all gone within a matter of days. Josh Naylor and Nathaniel Lowe changing hands through trade, while Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Jock Pederson, Andrew McCutchenand Josh Bell All free agent deals signed. The boom in this corner of the market has even impacted deep products, e.g. Darrick Hall and Matt Merwesboth found new homes in minor league free agency and trades, respectively. However, even after a slew of trades were made, there are still a number of interesting first base and DH options available. Pete Alonso Certainly the top free agent first baseman available this winter, and Anthony Rizzo and Mark Canha Is one of the more interesting rebound candidates still available on the public market
For those looking to fill the DH vacancy over the winter, one of the most compelling options is a pair of aging right-handed bats, both World Series champions with stellar resumes: Justin Turner and JD Martinez. Both players appear to be in the twilight of their careers, but had above-average offensive production last year and will look to extend their careers in free agency this winter. These similarities are accompanied by significant differences in their overall appearance, which gives each a certain edge over the other, creating an interesting contrast between the two.
Turner, who celebrated his 40th birthday in November, became a free agent for the third straight offseason. The longtime Dodgers stalwart was one of the game’s premier pure hitters during his time in Los Angeles, slashing .296/.375/.490 (136 wRC+). No one should expect Turner to perform at such a high level at this point in his career, but while his days of All-Star selections and top-10 finishes in MVP voting seem to be behind him, he’s still a solid and clearly above-average player. Two seasons after the caliber batsman left his long-time club. Since leaving the Dodgers, he has spent time with the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners, slashing .268/.349/.422 with a wRC+ of 116 while amassing 2.2 fWAR during that time.
Digging deeper, Turner produced the way he always has, employing a high-contact approach and strict plate discipline. His strikeout rate over the past two seasons has been the same at 17.6%, just a smidge behind. Juan Soto17.5% strikeout rate. In 2024, he has a stellar 10.9% walk rate vs. Carlos Santana and Jordan Alvarez Tied for 27th in walk rate among qualified hitters this year. Of course, that’s not to say Turner is perfect as a hitter. The veteran has never been much of a power threat, hitting just 11 home runs in 2024 and dropping his ISO to .124. That was the 16th-worst mark among qualified hitters last year and Turner’s worst mark in that category since arriving in Los Angeles in 2014. Ranked among the bottom 16.
As for Martinez, the six-time All-Star spent his prime years in Detroit and Boston, with a brief stint in Arizona in between. From 2014 to 2019, only Mike Trout and Aaron Judge Martinez hit 207 home runs in 816 games and posted an incredible .307/.373/.581 batting line, eclipsing Martinez’s 151 wRC+. Of course, those peak years are behind us now. Martinez is slashing .268/.334/.486 (122 wRC+) since the start of the 2021 season, with notable peaks and valleys in his production based primarily on his power output. The slugger will hit more homers in 2023 (33) than he did in 2022 and 24 seasons combined (32), and based on his power output, he could go from roughly replacement-level The bat transformed into a slugger look that was still worthy of an All-Star selection.
That being said, Martinez’s rebounding discipline pales in comparison to Turner’s. Over the past two seasons, Martinez has struck out 29.8 percent of the time, but walked solid but unspectacular 8.5 percent of the time. It’s also worth noting that, despite being three years younger than Turner, his defensive value is even lower than his 40-year-old counterpart. Turner has played in 139 games and started just 44 of them in 2024 (almost all at first base), but you have to go back to 2018 to find a year in which Martinez started so many games at the same time. .
It should also be noted that Martinez’s platform season was much worse than Turner’s, as he hit just .235/.320/.406 (108 wRC+) in 120 games with the Mets and started at the cutoff Lost playing time before date Jesse Wink End of the year. While he posted a strong .417 on-base percentage in a limited role during the club’s playoff run, he hit surprisingly little power and had no on-base hits. Turner, meanwhile, has been solid for the Mariners after hitting .264/.363/.403 (126 wRC+) in 48 games after being traded to Seattle over the summer.
On the other hand, Martinez’s underlying numbers suggest a recovery is likely in 2025. Austin Riley and Teoscar Hernandezand the critical hit rate of 45.5% is exactly between Ellie de la Cruz and Jock Pederson. This gave him an xwOBA of .356, nearly 40 points higher than last year’s wOBA. Meanwhile, Turner’s profile is more or less maxed out, with his .327 wOBA in 2024 nearly matching his .330 xwOBA, and his 2023 production actually significantly exceeding his projected numbers.
So, if your team needed a DH, which veteran would you rather bring in in 2025? Would you value Turner’s consistency, discipline and ability to make limited plays? Or do you prefer Martinez’s strength, upside and relative youthfulness?
