MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays

Enter today’s mailbag Gavin Lux Trades, Yankees infield, Giants’ ability to add bats, how the Orioles trade top starters, what the Rockies’ second half of the Black Street Bombers roster will look like, why some free agents aren’t signing with Toronto, why space Team didn’t take more criticism for trade Kyle Tucker,etc.

Kyle asked:

What are your thoughts on the Lux trade with Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan, I’m a little annoyed that they won’t beat the Reds’ offer (M owns the No. 33A pick, and the Reds traded No. 37 and the prospect Lux). Is M too risk-averse?

Leonard asked:

I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility and ability to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Except for the surplus of middle infielders). Lux average is 2B. He couldn’t throw from the SS. He also hasn’t shown that he can play 3B or OF well. Comment?

Jeff asked:

How much playing time do you think Gavin Lux will get after the trade? Noelvi Marte Get it this year?

Dante asked:

Do you think the Reds traded Lux ​​in anticipation of another move, such as trading Luis Roberto for infield depth? I understand the desire to add quality players, but they do seem to be stocked with a lot of infielders, and the team seems to be in need of some centerfielders.

Eliot asked:

After acquiring Gavin Lux, who would be the best fit for the Reds’ next move? Maybe a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?

Colin asked:

I’ve always liked Gavin Lux, even though he hasn’t developed into the star he was expected to be. That is, I want to know whether trade is Mookie Bates Returning to his more natural second base position, with Rojas and King sharing shortstop duties? I would also point out that if Sasaki is lucky enough to sign him, it would free up a roster spot for him. What are your thoughts?

Jason asked:

What do you think of the Gavin Lux trade? Have the Dodgers had enough of him, or do they like him? Alex Freeland Is it enough to line up with Kim?

Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman. He saved his season with a hot streak from July 11 to September 4. During that span, Lux posted a massive 181 wRC+ in 161 games. He then posted an 80 wRC+ over the remaining 62 games of the regular season and added 43 more postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.

Before his eight-week stretch, Lux was one of the 10 worst-hitting regular position players in baseball in 264 games. Lux has been heavily protected against left-handed pitching this season, facing lefties only 10.3 percent of the time. There’s good reason for that – in those 50 PA games, he posted an abysmal 17 wRC+ against lefties.

In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to an Oct. 4 article by Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs that helps explain Lux’s second-half effort to swing harder and cause more damage. The change in Lux is real; he’s clearly starting to swing harder. You can read more about these changes in this August 8 article from Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.

Over his career, Lux posted a 108 wRC+ in 1,210 plate appearances against right-handers. An 8-week scoring streak isn’t enough to convince me that he’s changed, especially since he struggled again in the final 105 PA of the season.

That being said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first-rounder. The upside here is that swinging harder can get to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties like he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and a fringe star. Maybe he can become good enough at the position than other second basemen, too. I think it’s unlikely the Reds will get that out of him when the Dodgers can’t do that, but maybe being back in the Midwest and away from the spotlight will help.

On defense, Kral said Lux ​​will play second base, some outfield and DH, and the team will “let him have a look” at third base and shortstop. It’s no secret that Lux had trouble pitching at shortstop. It’s hard to see how third base would be better. He’s shown seventh-hundredth percentile arm strength this year, possibly ruling out right field. Lux doesn’t step into left field until 2022, so I could see him getting time there. The idea of ​​Lux versatility is as overhyped as ever Jurikson Profal Location not found. So, yes, I agree with what Leonard said in the question above.

As a second baseman, Lux has been slightly below average in Statcast’s OAA this year. So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two years of a sustainable platoon of second basemen who needs to be benched 27% of the time but has the ability to post a 108 wRC+ against right-handers. This is a useful player.

But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who signed for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same thing as Lux, but also prove he could play third base well?