This is the gain from this morning’s introduction, you can Sign up Receive in your inbox every morning:
Everyone wants to believe that pain and pain will not appear at their doorstep.
Bad things happen to everyone else, right?
OK, that’s Wrong Thinking now when you invest money to work in the market! If you think Trump’s tariffs are something that won’t happen with bluffs (or to any degree that does it, not be big), you need to wake up and smell the sauce on the wide gas flame cooking.
Looking forward to the pain! A painful model of company cash flow estimates and valuations. Conduct downward plan valuation analysis. Don’t look at the NVIDIA (NVDA) beating chart on Yahoo Finance and think that the level of fictional support is in this volatile market. NVIDIA’s charts are expected to become uglier until they are no longer ugly.
watch: Trump tariffs could drill retailers
You are burned because you don’t take Trump’s news seriously enough and still expect a year of money. The government will cut regulations. We are getting Bitcoin reserves. Tax cuts. Food prices will suddenly tank.
These grand things have not happened yet, and may not have.
Market action tells you that, at least in the short term, this is not the case.
The week begins, tariffs on Canada and Mexico are 25%. At the end of the week, those tariffs were suspended until April 2, as stock markets were under siege, there could be. The new 10% tariff on China is still in effect at the highest point of 10% that has been achieved. The trading partners are retaliating.
One source told me, “It’s really confusing,” yes.
American companies also tell you that it’s all messy – the same earnings and stock markets as the US companies compete 500 (^GSPC).
Profit warnings have continued as cautious consumers retreat after holiday spending. Executives plan to impose expensive tariffs, so the 2025 perspective is issued.
Wal-Mart’s (WMT) outlook was underperformed by investors in mid-February. Competitors’ Targets (TGT) reported results and guidance this week for the fourth quarter.
Abercrombie & Fitch’s (ANF) outlook is not estimated; same as Best Buy (BBY) and Macy’s (M).
“I think it’s been a few months for the toy category,” Hasbro (Habro) CEO Chris Cocks told me in the opening bid podcast at Yahoo Finance (video above). Cocks – Attend the 2025 Toy Fair in New York City, Hasbro shows off the latest Monopoly, Play-DOH and NERF – quotes when toy prices will be raised due to new tariffs.
