Israel has been at war in the Middle East since the horrific Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023. The conflict has crossed borders, from Gaza to Lebanon to Iran. Over the course of 15 months, the IDF and Israeli intelligence directed the fight against Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, the two most important members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
In mid-September, Israel conducted a dramatic intelligence operation Pagers and intercoms explodeMore than a dozen Hezbollah infantrymen were killed and thousands of people in Lebanon were injured or maimed. In Gaza, Israeli forces killed more than 17,000 Hamas militants, devastating blow Twenty-two of Hamas’s 24 battalions were affected.
But the core of Israel’s efforts is targeted assassinationkilling the leaders of these groups with ruthless efficiency. At the end of September, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli air strike, while Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 attack, was arrested in Rafah in mid-October. Killed by Israeli military.
However, much of the conventional wisdom about counterterrorism suggests that killing terrorist leaders (also known as beheading attacks) is not enough to defeat these groups in the long run.
Still, many academics and analysts have published assessments indicating that, as The Economist think“There is good reason to believe that this time may be different.” Esteemed military historian Raphael S. Cohen added his voice For those who see Sinwar’s death as significant, they argue that “this event is different from the killing of Zarqawi, Baghdadi or even bin Laden,” referring to the core leaders of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State, and al-Qaeda, respectively. .
Nonetheless, empirical evidence and wider research institute Research on the effects of beheading attacks suggests that Hamas and Hezbollah will continue to operate even in severely weakened states until both sides can recruit new members and rebuild their organizations.
One reason it is too early to write an obituary for Hamas or Hezbollah is that both groups are better understood as insurgent groups rather than transnational terrorist organizations. What’s the difference? Terrorism is a tactic and insurgency is a strategy. Terrorism includes “violent, criminal attacks” and does not define terrorism, although it may be used by insurgents; rebellion is “The organized use of subversion and violence to seize, dismantle or challenge political control of an area.” The nationalist agendas of Hamas and Hezbollah are intertwined with Islamic ideology, but the group’s leading members and supporters are separate It’s Palestinians and Lebanese.
These groups are organic and homegrown, unlike Islamic State or al-Qaeda, which rely heavily on fighters from abroad. This is important because foreign fighters, while zealous in many ways, are disengaged from the territories in which they live. For much of its existence, al-Qaeda was a mobile jihadist group that moved from battlefield to battlefield, from the Balkans to the Caucasus to South Asia. At its peakAccording to statistics, the Islamic State has 30,000 foreign fighters from 85 countries, not including those who bring their families with them.
In contrast, Hamas and Hezbollah will replenish their ranks with locals – new recruits, many of whom will continue after Israel’s harsh approach in Gaza and Lebanon caused massive destruction and humanitarian suffering their struggle. As they have done throughout their terms, Hamas and Hezbollah will use the ongoing conflict to strengthen martyrdom cult Efforts were made to ensure that ideological and religious fervor were passed on to the younger generation. Killing the leaders of these groups will not significantly hinder this – and may even contribute to radicalization.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah are important parts of the socio-political fabric of Gaza and Lebanon and will inevitably re-grow their depleted ranks. Hezbollah recruits by providing employment, education and health care Provide other services Shias in southern Lebanon. Israel’s scorched earth approach in Gaza – where 45,000 Palestinians have been killed and the territory’s infrastructure razed – will serve as a recruitment tools For Hamas, it is seeking to recruit the next wave of Palestinians, many of whom will be radicalized by the war and its aftermath. “In four or five years we will be fighting their sons,” Yaakov Perry commentedThe Shin Bet, the former head of Israel’s intelligence agency, was referring to the cycle of violence created by Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza.
To be sure, the attack was devastating for both groups. However, neither organization is likely to disappear. As Middle East expert Steven Cook famous After Sinwar’s death: “It’s hard to escape the problems posed by the resistance. The pledgers didn’t get the message; they just redoubled their efforts.
In Israel, there is a saying Regarding counter-terrorism, Israelis euphemistically call it “mowing the grass.” This metaphor is apt because grass always grows back. But in the latest round of fighting over the past 15 months, Israel has decided to do more than just “mow the grass” – which is why we see scorched earth.
Rather than a problem to be mitigated, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle of far-right ministers are trying to convince Israelis that the challenges of Hamas and Hezbollah can be solved once and for all. In November, the prime minister spoke about Hezbollah explain: “This is no longer the same Hezbollah. … We have set it back decades. As for Hamas, Netanyahu said the Israelis will remain in Gaza until the organization is “totally destroyed.” Kim Ghattas is a journalist and regional expert describes these goals “Minimalist and basically unachievable”.
In fact, the Israeli military’s pursuit of “total victory” The situation in Gaza and Lebanon will ensure the survival of Hamas and Hezbollah. After all, insurgent groups need to be fought through counter-insurgency rather than counter-terrorism. The solution Israel seeks is completely inconsistent with the problem. Counterinsurgency involves “an integrated civilian and military effort aimed at simultaneously defeating and containing an insurgency and addressing its root causes.”
But Israel’s recent approach in Gaza and Lebanon contains no real plan to protect the population and no effort to “win hearts and minds.” Moreover, from the outset of these overlapping conflicts, Netanyahu has never attempted to provide a coherent political ending to Hamas or Hezbollah.
As always, war, and especially rebellion, is politics by other means. Israel’s military campaign, while tactically impressive, relied entirely on the dynamic aspects of the conflict, completely ignored the political component, and condemned future generations on all sides to the same fate – perpetual war.
Colin P. Clarke is director of research at the Soufan Group, an intelligence and security consulting firm in New York City.
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
