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Warming trends in U.S.-Russia relations put Ukraine in trouble

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has faced a daunting week, with foreign officials gathering in Europe to negotiate the future of their own country.

Vice President JD Vance is traveling to Europe to meet Ukrainian mineral rights, lifting Ukraine exemption from U.S. tariffs on steel, and leading U.S. military aid to Kiev, Vice President JD Vance is heading to Europe to meet Ukrainians Meeting leader.

But on Wednesday, things got worse. Mr. Trump’s defense minister made a harsh assessment of Ukraine’s prospects in the war with Russia. Then, Mr. Trump announced that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose call was set to end the war – Mr. Zelensky did not make it clear role.

The phone also spells the end of the U.S. efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine about three years ago

“He is a high geopolitical reason,” said Mr. Zelensky.

Over the past two days, Mr. Trump’s actions – also include a prisoner exchange with the Kremlin who released American teachers – indicate that the thawing relationship between the United States and Russia can favor Mr. Putin in a peace deal while bringing Ukraine Stay on the sidelines of Ukraine.

Mr. Trump also called Ukrainian leaders on Wednesday, but in social media posts he did not mention whether Mr. Zelensky would be in peace talks.

Trump said Mr. Zelensky will meet with Mr. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the annual Munich security conference that opens on Friday.

Negotiations ending the deadliest wars of generations will shape the future of Ukraine, and recent developments mean that some of its territories may still be under Russian occupation.

They will shape Mr. Zelensky’s political future. He has no choice but while most Ukrainians are prepared to negotiate opinions without imposing heavy conditions or bringing more military and economic pressure, most Ukrainians are leading the United States The speech was skeptical.

By Thursday morning, it was a sentiment in Kiev, and the city is now blasted by Russian missiles and explosive drones every night.

Politician Volodymyr Fesenko wrote on Facebook that Putin is most likely to play the Trump administration in time. “He won’t compromise on ending the war like Trump’s team,” he wrote.

Mr. Trump is not the only one who has been conveying news to Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told European allies on Wednesday that it was “unrealistic” for Ukraine to return to the border like before the Russian military invasion in 2014.

He added that the United States does not support Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO to ensure any peaceful solution, calling it “unrealistic.”

Mr. Zelensky once played his weak hands. On the opening day of the Russian invasion, he came out of the bunker and filmed selfies of the Ukrainian career that gathered most of his country and the world.

Now, he faces his country again, in a lower position, sinks into domestic polls and gains a cold shoulder from his most important allies.

Mr Zelensky said twice recently that he would be willing to negotiate with Mr Putin if Western allies provide security assurances in reconciliation. Ukrainian leaders reconciled in their nightly speech to the country on Wednesday, saying he had a “good and detailed discussion” with Mr. Trump.

“We discussed many aspects – diplomacy, military, economics – what President Trump told me about Putin told him.” “We think the U.S. power is enough to go with Russia and Putin with us with all our partners Apply pressure together.”

Mr Putin said Mr Zelensky needed to face elections at home before Russia accepted the signature of the peace agreement.

According to a person who recently spoke about the solution to senior Russian officials, the demand suggests that Russia has a potential three-step process to negotiate a solution to the war.

. It envisioned the initial armistice and preliminary agreements, followed by elections in Ukraine until it followed a binding peace solution.

Ukraine has some bright attractions. Shortly after the inauguration, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Putin, saying he was “destroying” Russia in the war.

Although Mr. Trump’s claims on Ukrainian minerals are expensive for Kiev, Ukrainian officials also see it as a signal of hope.

Talks on mineral rights began Wednesday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visiting Kyiv, opening the way for Mr. Trump to continue military aid while claiming that the United States has received benefits.

“They essentially agree to do this, so at least we don’t feel stupid,” Mr. Trump said of Ukraine’s Fox News interview aired on Monday. “Otherwise, we’re stupid. I said to them, “We’re stupid.” Something has to be obtained. We cannot continue to pay this money. transparent

That was before Russia and the United States showed a new willingness to cooperate. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump’s friend and envoy Steve Witkoff flew a private plane to Moscow to retrieve the incarcerated American teacher Marc Fogel, which is Moscow’s obvious posture. The Kremlin said that in return, the United States will bring Russian cybercriminal Alexander Vinnik back to Russia.

Mr. Zelensky rejected Mr. Putin’s repeated statement that he was a private leader and that Ukraine needed to lift martial law and hold elections. (The Ukrainian general election is delayed according to martial arts after the invasion in 2022. Mr. Zelensky’s five-year term (which will expire in May last year) is extended under the law.)

Ukrainian officials say they see Russia’s need for democratic elections as part of a strategy to destabilize the government and force Ukraine. They urged the Trump administration not to endorse the idea.

“It was the Russians who raised the election because they needed men in Ukraine,” Mr Zelensky said in an interview with BBC ITV News, which aired last weekend. “If we suspend martial law, we could fail. Russia People will be happy because the quality of spirit and combat ability will be lost. “

However, within Ukraine, his domestic rivals are quietly preparing for possible sports.

Eurasian analyst Mr. Kupchan said that despite his reduced status, it is too early to say that he once played a former actor and skilled leader, Mr. Zelensky, was a former actor in the crisis. “He turned out to be a skilled counterattacker,” he said. “I don’t think we have any final scenes of any game.”

Mr. Zelensky is preparing for negotiations, the driving force behind the main fronts of the war, and has been favoring Russia for more than a year in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. It is unclear how long Russia can sustain casualties, while military analysts estimate at least a few hundred per day.

Ukraine is entering the talks with some kind of leverage: the invasion of the Kremlin was embarrassing to control hundreds of square miles of Russian territory captured last summer. Mr Zelensky said he wanted to supply Ukrainian land in Kursk trading territory, which Putin would almost certainly boycott.

If the momentum of dozens or hundreds of yards of progress continues through negotiations every day, it will give Moscow an advantage. Then, any delays in accepting the ceasefire clause will lose the Kiev region.

Russia’s progress has declined since November, according to data from the US Analytics Group War Institute.

The institute reported that in January, for example, Russia captured 40 miles less square miles than in December. Military analysts warn that it is impossible to determine the importance of this decline.

Anton Troynovsky Contribution report.

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