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The author is the director of the Carnegie Russian Center in Berlin
It was a watershed similar to 9/11 when Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Although Russia’s attack on neighbors is rooted in the country’s sporadic journey into the dark, it is not inevitable. However, once it happened, war changed the course of history. The perfect storm of challenges faced by Western leaders is unprecedented in life memory, and the relationship with rogue Russia is the most important.
Now entering its fourth year, the war has destroyed Ukraine, the main victim of unnecessary horror released by the Kremlin. Russia is far away second, but war is also a strategic disaster, especially if all the peaceful alternative trajectories that the state may take. Ironically, Putin posed a long-term security challenge to Russia through his invasion of Ukraine, which did not exist before. Three years ago, Western missiles were fired at military targets within Russia with almost impunity, a non-core country would occupy part of Russian territory, Finland and Sweden would join NATO, which is Moscow – a special relationship with Germany would be destroyed . However, all of this is gone. More importantly, Putin turned the Ukrainians into a victimized country and was looking for ways to resolve the atrocities committed by people who once called them “brothers”.
At the time, US Secretary of State Anthony said in March 2022 that Russia did suffer a “strategic failure.” But fast forward to 2025, the painting is much worse than the triumphal expectation that many people in the West have told the public and the Ukrainians. Russia absorbed setbacks, pushing hard-hit Ukrainian troops despite soaring casualties and destruction equipment. In addition, the Kremlin has undergone military reorganization. By 2030, its war machine may become bigger and better.
Faced with the tsunami of Western sanctions, the Russian economy is expected to be ragged a long time ago. But unlike the Soviet Union, it followed market principles and was managed by competent technical experts. The country is also a major exporter of oil and other commodities that have difficulty cutting off completely without destroying global markets. This, along with the self-interest support of China and other non-Western countries, explains the gradualism in sanctions and the resilience of Russia. Finally, Russian society – even before the war – was plagued by repression, similar atomic elites gathered around Putin.
Then, in the most surprising plot twist, Putin felt lucky for the election of Donald Trump, who tried to end the war and reduce U.S. participation. The war has been on a negative trajectory for some time – at least, Ukraine has had a 2023 counterattack. But Trump’s election made the problem worse. The Kremlin hopes that, as he is seeking a quick deal, it could also be a dirty deal that will simply stop hostilities but leave Ukraine without reliable security guarantees and set it up as a road to implosion, including Passing a polarized presidential election.
Whatever the unpredictable outcome of Trump’s diplomatic cavalry accusations is obvious: Even if Ukraine’s guns are silent, even if Trump lifts our sanctions on Russia, the current Kremlin regime will continue to see the West. For mortal enemies. Putin’s triumphalism, revenge and desire for a serious lack of checks and balances in the Kremlin prompted Moscow to prepare for the next war while strengthening the intimidation campaign against Europe.
Three years ago, the Western capital believed that Kiev would fall within a few days. The combination of Ukraine’s courage and creativity, Russian water skiing and Western support eliminates this. Ukraine remains standing, Europe has painfully reduced its dependence on Russian raw materials and has invested in deterrence. However, according to other indicators, the situation for Europeans is worse than in early 2022. Progress in upgrading the defense industry foundation is still spotty. The impact of the war derailed post-recovery in many countries, which allowed defense spending to increase hard selling for voters. Most importantly, the United States under Trump is not a traditional role of European security foundations, but a risk. Most importantly, solidarity within the EU and within the larger countries is even more broken. Is there a political will to follow them even if competent road maps such as the Draghi report are formulated to address these issues?
One issue that the West can and should solve is the wishful thinking about defeating Putin and managing the shortcuts for Russia’s challenge. Unrealistic expectations for a complete victory have always been due to a lack of clear perspective and have been part of the problem. It’s time for a quiet, sober conversation about how to mitigate the threats that will radiate from Russia over the next decade and how to prepare for what’s coming.
