Congress yesterday certified President-elect Donald Trump’s victory. Now that the Republicans will hold the coveted “trifecta” — the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives — they’re going to get their way in Washington, right? perhaps. The success of the Trump administration will depend on the ability of congressional Republicans to remain united. It’s not easy.
In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson, who was re-elected on Friday, will have the smallest majority in history: 217 to 215. Almost unanimous support from the conference.
In today’s newsletter, I’ll break down some of the divisions that could define the new Congress and threaten to derail Trump’s agenda.
Spending has been the issue that has most divided House Republicans in recent years. Many of them say they came to Congress to cut federal spending and get the national debt under control. So, unable to get the conference to agree on a spending plan, Johnson turned to relying on Democratic votes to pass important measures, from a stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown to an aid package for Ukraine that lawmakers approved. He believes this approach is reasonable because he faces a Democratic Senate and White House.
no longer.
Since Democrats are unlikely to vote for bills with a Republican majority, Johnson will need to lead the entire conference. But any measure that wins support from Republicans most opposed to spending risks alienating more centrist Republicans — and vice versa.
Lines may be blurry. Most House Republicans believe the government should spend less. But they disagree on which programs should be cut. Each state delegation has its own prerogatives to protect: New York Republicans, for example, resisted Amtrak cuts, while Iowa Republicans resisted Republican efforts to cut biofuel tax credits. There are also ideological differences between hardliners in safe seats who want to shut down the entire agency and pragmatists in swing districts who view these plans as politically toxic.
The incident will almost immediately test party comity. Unless lawmakers raise or suspend borrowing limits, the country could default on its debt as early as January, a measure ultraconservatives refused to support in December despite Trump’s urging. After that, Congress will hit another government funding deadline in March.
Even if House Republicans find a compromise, they must win Senate approval. Republicans there — especially centrists like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, who will chair the Appropriations Committee — are opposed to deep spending cuts. Not much interest.
One solution might be for House leaders to accept the higher spending levels set by the Senate and try to get Democrats to provide some votes. That’s likely to anger far-right Republicans.
reconciliation bill
The most high-profile fight this year will be Republicans’ efforts to reshape the nation’s tax, budget and immigration policies through a process called reconciliation. It allows the Senate to pass bills with a simple majority, rather than the 60-vote filibuster that other measures typically require.
Congressional Republicans believe this is their best chance to attack much of Trump’s agenda. They are eyeing a massive bill that would raise the nation’s borrowing limit, extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, cut federal spending and impose a broad crackdown on immigration.
There was intense pressure to enact legislation. And the reconciliation process is very cumbersome.
Some members of the House Freedom Caucus, an ultra-conservative group of lawmakers, said they would not support a reconciliation bill that would ultimately cost money. This means expensive measures need to be offset by deep spending cuts. For example, just extending Trump’s tax cuts would cost about $4 trillion over ten years.
But moderate Republicans in the House and Senate are not interested in destructive programs like Medicaid and SNAP, which are frequent targets of Republican attacks.
Republicans must agree on immigration policies that have deeply divided them since the election. One wing of the party wants to recruit high-skilled workers to keep America competitive. Another argued that these workers took away American jobs.
How will Johnson face these issues with a one-vote advantage? He deadpanned at a press conference in December that he had practiced many times with a very small number of people: “This is what we are used to.”
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Where will you travel this year? The Times publishes an annual feature, “52 Places to Go,” highlighting destinations in the United States and around the world. Some are on the list because of anniversaries, such as southwest England, which is celebrating the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth. Other areas have recently become accessible, such as Pakistan’s Nanmar Valley, which now has an easy camping hike through Yosemite-like granite peaks.
You can browse the full list here.
