Speaker’s Lobby: A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Electing House Speaker

The Constitution stipulates that the 119th Congress begin at noon on Friday.

The first task of the House of Representatives is to elect the constitutional officer of the legislative branch of government: the Speaker of the House.

Only the House of Representatives votes to elect the Speaker. The House can do nothing—I repeat, nothing—until a Speaker is elected.

The House of Representatives cannot be sworn in until the House elects a Speaker and he or she is sworn in. Then all members of the Speaker took the oath. The House must then adopt a set of rules to govern day-to-day operations. Only then can the House begin debating the bill, voting and forming hearing committees.

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If the House of Representatives fails to elect a Speaker in the first vote, a second vote must be held.

constantly.

Consider that in the century before Donnybrook two years ago, the House had never even held a second vote on a Speaker. In 1923, it took four rounds of voting for the late House Speaker Frederick Gillett, a Massachusetts Republican, to be re-elected.

Everything in the past is prologue to the House of Representatives. Consider how the House elected former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in 15 votes over five days in January 2023. So the House froze for 22 days. House Republicans later appointed House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, as speaker. Even before the floor vote, Scalise withdrew his name. House Republicans subsequently appointed Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, as speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes in the election for House speaker, losing support on each vote. House Republicans subsequently designated House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) as speaker. Emmer quit hours later.

House Republicans ultimately nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, for the position. Louisiana Republicans won on the floor. But some conservatives have since grown frustrated with Johnson. They flagged how he had handled multiple last-minute spending bills since November. They didn’t like that he allowed passage of a bill to aid Ukraine. They oppose him enacting another stopgap spending bill in September. They really don’t like his work with Democrats on important legislation that needs to get done. Then Trump and Elon Musk remotely shredded the 1,500-page interim spending plan in December, with shocking results. Johnson then launched another spending plan at the direction of President-elect Trump, which included raising the debt ceiling. But 38 House Republicans supported the bill.

So Johnson’s tenure can be described as bumpy. That’s why he was in trouble during Friday afternoon’s vote for speaker. Everyone on Capitol Hill is nervous about ending this quickly.

Here’s what will happen at noon on Friday:

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Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside over proceedings until the House elects a speaker. The first task is “Convocation of the House of Representatives”. The House of Representatives is there to determine how many members are elected, simply by voting “present.” The House of Representatives should have 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be an empty seat. Former Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned in the fall and said he had no “intention” to serve in the new Congress despite winning re-election.

Watch for absences from House calls. Fox has learned that Democrats who have been battling health issues recently include Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Pa., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Pelosi, may attend. But the election of Speaker is about math. How many members report to the House will determine the speaker’s vote.

Then came the nomination speech. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., will nominate Johnson as speaker. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Anyone else can put someone’s name into the nomination.

The House then calls the elected members in alphabetical order. Each member stands and responds verbally, saying the name of their choice. Democratic Rep. Alma Adams, Alabama Republican Rep. Robert Aderholt and the aforementioned Aguilar were the first names to come up.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

But lawmakers can vote for whomever they want. This includes people who are not members of the House of Representatives. That’s why over the years votes have been cast for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. .

Here’s what Johnson, or anyone else, would have to do to win the speakership:

The winning candidate must receive an absolute majority of votes cast by all members.

Suppose there are 434 members, and everyone votes for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he also wins. But 217? No dice. In that case, Johnson would likely have been polled 217 to 215 over Jeffries – with two votes going to other candidates. But the person with the “most votes” did not win. 217 is not an absolute majority of roll call votes among members of the House of Representatives. The House must vote again to elect a speaker.

Fox has learned that there are 12 to 17 Republicans who could vote for someone other than Johnson. Some Republicans are tight-lipped about their votes.

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Here’s something to watch for: Members who voted “present.”

Some Republicans may not vote for anyone other than Johnson and simply vote “show up” in protest. “Present” votes do not count against Johnson.

Let’s do some hypothetical math here:

Assume that 434 MPs vote. Jeffries received the support of all 215 Democrats. Three Republicans voted “present.” In other words, vote for no candidate by name. Johnson received 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 MPs voted for someone by name. 216 is an absolute majority of 431. So Johnson became Speaker.

But there is a serious danger that too many Republicans “show up” to vote.

Consider this situation:

All 215 Democrats voted for Jeffries. But five Republicans voted “present.” Johnson received 214 votes. 429 MPs voted for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Jeffries. He summons an absolute majority of all MPs and elects a candidate by roll call.

(Joe Reddell/Getty Images)

As the movie says: “Mr. Bond, you are playing a very dangerous game.”

With the House majority so slim, Republicans will definitely add fuel to the fire if they act too cute. Yes. Some conservatives may not want to reelect Johnson as speaker. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries.

So it’s hard to say what will happen Friday afternoon. If the House hesitates for too long, it could delay Monday’s certification of the Electoral College vote. The House and Senate must convene a joint session of Congress on January 6 to certify the election results. No Speaker of the House? No joint meetings.

But if this continues, something else may happen. Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans have had enough with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other liberal workers. If Republicans struggle to elect a speaker, expect an all-out brawl between the two factions.

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As we have written before, everything in the past is prologue.

The protracted fight over the speakership is a prelude to a looming internecine war among Republicans over governing. Not to mention implementing a single element of President-elect Trump’s agenda.