Southern California is about to experience its most extreme fire weather yet – with the National Weather Service issuing a “particularly hazardous conditions” warning for an unprecedented fifth time this season.
The “Exceptionally Hazardous Conditions” advisory will go into effect at noon Monday and last until 10 a.m. Tuesday for a large swath of Los Angeles County and much of Ventura County.
Peak gusts could reach 50 mph to 70 mph in coastal and valley areas, while sustained winds are expected to be between 25 mph and 40 mph.
Isolated gusts of up to 100 mph are possible in mountainous and foothill areas, while sustained winds are expected to be between 30 mph and 50 mph, Schoenfeld said.
The “particularly dangerous situation” is an enhancement of the Red Flag Warning, which already warns of severe fire weather conditions and the rapid spread of fires should they break out.
“The PDS highlights an extremely dangerous environment that is highly conducive to the rapid spread of a fire should it occur,” said Ross Schoenfeld, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office.
Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office, said areas in “particularly hazardous conditions” face “the extremes of extreme conditions — pretty much the worst-case scenario.” .
(National Weather Service)
Areas in Los Angeles County that are “particularly at risk” include the San Fernando and northern San Gabriel valleys, Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, the Santa Clarita Valley and other areas in the north.
That includes areas like Altadena and Pasadena, but also the Northwest, from La Crescenta to the Porter Ranch area.
The northern San Gabriel Valley affected by the “particularly hazardous situation” is the area north of Interstate 210, including much of Altadena and Pasadena. The San Fernando Valley area of the alert includes Reseda and Burbank, as well as northern areas.
Much of Ventura County is also at “particularly at risk,” including Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Ventura, Camarillo, Moorpark, Santa Paula, Port Hueneme and Fillmore.
A traditional red flag warning – which warns of severe fire weather conditions and the rapid spread of fires if ignited – will go into effect across a large swath of Southern California at 8 a.m. Monday and is expected to last until 10 p.m. Tuesday.
The red flag warning in Los Angeles County also includes the San Gabriel Valley, Palos Verdes Peninsula and Santa Catalina Island.
The red flag warning also includes large swaths of Inland San Diego and Orange counties, as well as Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
A red flag fire weather warning was issued for a large swath of Southern California from Monday morning into Tuesday night.
(National Weather Service)
Unlike the devastating storm of Jan. 7-8, which had winds blowing from the north and northeast, Santa Ana’s winds are expected to be more traditional this week, blowing from the east and northeast, forecasters said.
That’s why forecasters expect one of the areas hardest hit will be the Santa Ana Wind Corridor, which stretches from Palmdale to areas to the southwest such as Santa Clarita and Ventura as the winds blow toward the coast.
Schoenfeld said the strongest winds are expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.
Forecasters also warned of danger in coastal waters. “Strong winds will create dangerous sea conditions that may cause capsizing or damage to small and large vessels,” the weather service said.
Schoenfeld said this “particularly dangerous situation” is so different from four such warnings since November because “this is probably one of the driest fire weather events we’ve seen so far this year.”
Relative humidity could drop to as low as 3% in some areas, with the air likely to be driest on Tuesday.
“So, while winds are expected to decrease as Tuesday progresses, we urge people not to let down their guard as we head toward the lowest relative humidity for the period,” Schoenfeld said.
It may rain next weekend. There’s a 50 to 70 percent chance of rain starting Saturday and continuing over the next two days, but there’s also a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. This could bring heavy rain to some isolated areas and the risk of flooding near recently burned areas.
The good news is that there’s a chance of beneficial showers, which could help put out the fires. Schoenfeld said this is a cold storm that will bring snow levels as low as 4,000 feet above sea level, bringing snow to some mountain communities.
“If we can get enough beneficial rainfall, that’s really going to be a game-changer for fire weather,” Schoenfeld said.
An extreme lack of rainfall is a big reason for fire disasters in Southern California, where vegetation is dry and flammable, making brushwood more likely to turn into localized fires once embers fall on it.
The last time downtown Los Angeles received more than a tenth of an inch of rain in a single calendar day was May 5. rain. The previous record for the city center was from February 25 to November 25. On December 3, 2008, a record was set for 253 consecutive days without a tenth of an inch of rain.
Since the start of the water year on October 1, only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen in downtown Los Angeles. The average annual rainfall in the city center is 14.25 inches.
Forecasters are urging people to take immediate action to reduce the risk of any form of fire or fire spread and to prepare for strong winds.
Residents should secure loose outdoor items such as patio furniture; adjust travel times from Monday night into Tuesday morning; charge electronics, flashlights and battery packs; fill emergency generator tanks; and move cars, Schoenfeld said. away from the fragile-looking trees.
Experts warn people not to place certain items within 5 feet of their homes, such as outdoor furniture, umbrellas, trash and recycling bins. It’s also a good idea to remove any dead or alive weeds, as well as clear flammable materials like leaves and needles from gutters, roofs, decks, porches, and stairs.
“When the wind blows, stay away from trees and windows. Again, use extreme caution around anything that could start a fire.
The new alert is the unprecedented fifth time in one season that the Weather Service’s Oxnard office has issued an enhanced red flag warning of “particularly hazardous conditions,” covering Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.
Fires ignited and spread quickly after the office’s three previous warnings — a 19,904-acre wildfire in Ventura County in November that burned 243 structures; and a 4,037-acre Franklin Fire in December that burned 243 structures. Malibu spread rapidly, destroying 20 buildings; this month’s Palisades and Eaton fires were among the most destructive and deadly fires in modern California history.
“This wind [this week] Similar to wildfires in many ways,” Schoenfeld said. But, she added, “it’s not as deep into the San Gabriel Valley as the Jan. 7 incident,” which caused the Eaton Fire to spread quickly and destroy a large swath of unincorporated Altadena.
Oxnard’s weather service did not start issuing “particularly hazardous conditions” warnings until 2020. No other versions will be released until November 2024.
(National Weather Service)
The meteorological department decided to start using the slogan “Exceptionally hazardous conditions” to issue the highest level of red flag warning.
The need for a red alert, in essence, became apparent when the devastating Thomas Fire in 2017 destroyed 1,063 structures in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties; the Woolsey Fire in 2018 destroyed 1,643 buildings in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Both fires were the most destructive in Southern California’s recent history.
In the past, reinforcing this messaging has sometimes seemed to be effective. In late 2019, the Office of the Weather Service, which oversees the Bay Area, drew widespread attention when it called a red flag warning potentially “historic” and “extreme.” At the time, firefighters believed the extraordinary deployment of firefighting resources was critical to preventing fires in Northern and Southern California from becoming more severe.
As of Sunday, the Palisades Fire had burned more than 23,700 acres, killed at least 10 people and was 56% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The Eaton Fire, which has burned more than 14,000 acres and killed at least 17 people, is 81% contained.
According to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, 27 people are still missing: 20 from the Eaton Fire and seven from the Palisades.
Times staff writer Connor Sheets contributed to this report.
