Execute abstract:
- The beginning of the income season
- Width is better than the breadth of the weighted index with equal weight
- Deepseek Send a shock wave through AI transaction
- The Fed maintains stability and stability-it was not expected until June
- The development of headline news led by Washington
Index performance in January:
After most of last month, US stocks ended in January. The breadth is positive, and the same weighted S & P is better than the official index of more than 70bps. Although the weight is equal, the S & P 500 Index has reached a new record high in this month, only below these numbers. Small hats have also improved. From December, Russell 2000 restored some of the losses of 8 %. The state treasury is more firm, a certain income curve is steep, and gold has risen by 7.1 %, reaching a new record high, and Bitcoin futures have increased by 9.3 %. WTI crude oil has risen by 1.1 %, worrying that Russian oil sanctions are interrupted and tariffs on Canadian oil may be 10 %.
Although the development of Washington has occupied headlines this month, the market continues to benefit from animal spirit and relax the dynamics of the company. The company’s repurchase and some speed probation. Although it was officially announced before the end of the month, the Trump administration announced new tariffs (25 %) to Mexico and Canada and announced a 10 % tariff on China. In addition, President Trump pointed out the tariffs of chips, steel, aluminum and copper in the near future, and mentioned that he has not reached the general tax rate. He did suggest that it was reported that this would be “much larger” than the original 2.5 % of the Treasury Minister Bessent.
With the seemingly affordable Deepseek AI model that has affordable, the A-GROWTH narrative is facing frustration. This has increased the scope of the scope of technological expenditures, pricing capabilities, and the extensive scope of the United States in the global AI race. There is concerns about large technology, which exacerbates the existing concerns about valuation. In addition, the idea of AI applications can be put forward on the idea of a small capital expenditure plan with a small part of the expected cost. Although the initial shock is shocking, it seems that the cost savings have been exaggerated, and the breakthrough discovered by Deepseek can still be repeated for other players, and these players can still benefit from a huge computing advantage.
To move to the Federal Reserve, the FOMC meeting in January is expected to not change the benchmark interest rate, which remains at 4.25-4.50 %. This is mainly a bland meeting and press conference, and the market is not expected to reduce the tax rate until June. At the press conference, President Powell mentioned that the Fed is not rushed to change, because the recent inflation rate is good, and it can be helped by alleviating housing inflation. Analysts usually see the extended holding of the Federal Reserve forward, although some people say that it may lead to the number of online inflation readings that can be reduced in middle -aged.
Steering to economic data, the Core CPI in December is slightly consensus, while the title is slightly lower. Analysts believe that the core CPI inflation trend is still moving towards FOMC’s goals, especially after PPI cool in December, PPI is cooler than expected. It is worth noting that although the growth of the printing of non-agricultural wages in December is estimated to be between 150K-160K than the consensus of 256K, the unemployment rate drops to 4.1 %.
The total return of the industry’s performance in January:
Income comments:
36 % of Standard Purcera’s 500 -year company reported the income of 24 Q4’24, and the result was half ginseng. According to FactSet, 77 % of these companies reported that the actual income per share was higher than the estimated value. The average level of the EPS was 77 %, but the average level of 10 years was 75 %. Overall, the company’s reported income ratio estimation value was 5.0 % higher, less than 5 years average of 8.5 %, and 6.7 % below the 10 -year average. Since December 31, the company’s positive reports of reporting in the field of finance and communication surprises per share. Some of the negative EPS surprises reported by the industrial department’s company are the biggest period of the increase in total revenue growth rate of the index.
Although the 500 -year company’s percentage of the company’s 500 -year company is higher than the 10 -year average, which is more than the 10 -year average of 10 years. However, compared to last weekend and at the end of this quarter, S & P500 companies reported higher revenue in the fourth quarter today. In addition, the index also reported the highest income growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 in the fourth quarter of three years. The income growth rate of mixed (actual+estimation) in the fourth quarter was 13.2 %, which was the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter since the fourth quarter. This also marks the growth of the index for the sixth consecutive quarter.
Seven departments in the ten departments showed the year -on -year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, of which five departments experienced double -position growth: finance, communication services, information technology, consumers, and public causes. In addition, the revenue of the quarter fell four departments year -on -year, and the two -digit number reported by energy and industrial people decreased.
In terms of income, the actual income of 63 % of the 500 companies in the S & Pell is higher than the estimated value, less than 5 years average, 69 %, and a 10 -year average of 64 %. On average, the company’s report revenue is 0.9 % higher than the estimation value, below the 5 -year average of 2.1 %, and a 10 -year average of 1.4 %. Since December 31, during this period, financial companies, consumers, and active income of the medical care and energy department have been surprised, and have made significant contributions to the overall income growth rate of the index during this period.
In the fourth quarter of the information technology leadership, the eight departments are reporting their income growth in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, the revenue reported by the third -quarter revenue led by the industrial sector decreased year -on -year.
Sales and revenue results of the S & P industry:
2 days after income issuance price reaction:
Fed:
Output curve 1M change:
Gold:
Bitcoin:
Dxy:
Look forward:
In February, the conclusions of the 424th quarter, as well as further economic data, including employment, inflation and GDP. Since the Fed is currently in the holding model, the focus should be shifted to a wider macro, but any rotation in the data can bring the wrench into things. When investor evaluation and retaliation measures, the implementation of new tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be a development. In the past 10 years, this month’s historical monthly income is at the lowest third month, with an average income of 0.15 %. Although in 2024, this is the second excellent month, with a return rate of 5.17 %, which is only behind November 5.73 %.
Economic Calendar:
The information included here is only used for information and education. No content in this article should represent specific security or overall investment strategies as investment recommendations. All the information contained in this article is obtained by Nasdaq, which is originally from Nasdaq to ensure accuracy and reliability. However, all information is provided by “original” without any form of guarantee. It is strongly recommended to provide suggestions for securities professionals.
