this Riki Saaki The mania is coming to an end. Several teams were reportedly told they wouldn’t sign the right-hander, and now ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists. The Cubs are no longer in the running, according to Mike Rodriguez , with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their status.
It looks like today is the day that Sasaki and his representatives will start informing the eliminated teams. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks would not sign Sasaki. The Mariners were vaguely linked to Sasaki at times and weren’t explicitly eliminated, but it didn’t seem like they were on the podium as one of the top three.
Sasaki’s decision is one of the biggest uncertainties facing the offseason. Because he joined the major leagues before his 25th birthday, he was considered an amateur under MLB rules and therefore subject to the international bonus pool system. Therefore, no club can be excluded based solely on financial factors, as is typically the case with other free agents.
Each team is given a fund each year that can be used to purchase international amateur players. The price of swimming pools this year is between 5-8MM, and most clubs in smaller markets have slightly larger swimming pools. Teams can trade for more pool space, but they cannot increase their initial allocation by more than 60%. Sasaki’s former club in Japan, Chiba Rakuten Marines, will also pay a posting fee, but this only adds 20% to the bonus. Therefore, each team’s ability to pay Sasaki millions is roughly the same.
As a result, Sasaki may base his decision on factors other than money. After all, if money was his priority, he might wait until he was 25. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Indeed, it resulted in a $325MM deal for the Dodgers.
No one can say for sure what Sasaki will prioritize, although the Dodgers and Padres have been viewed as logical suitors for some time. Both clubs are located on the West Coast, closer to Japan, which could be a plus when considering flights for Sasaki and his family. The Dodgers also have a strong reputation overall, having made the postseason every year since 2013 and a new World Series victory in 2024.
Both clubs have Japanese players on their rosters, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani and the Padres having Yu Darvish. Some reports indicate that Sasaki and Darvish had a particularly close relationship.
The Jays are a much lower landing point for Sasaki than the Dodgers or Padres, which is smart. They’re not on the west coast. They experienced strong competition from 2020 to 2023 but are experiencing a down season. they have Kikuchi Yusen Until last year’s trade deadline, there were currently no Japanese players on the roster.
In April 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote, “Major league executives and agents say some Japanese players feel uncomfortable being teammates with other Japanese players in the major leagues because of the importance of seniority in Japan’s hierarchical culture. That article was looking at the possibility of Ohtani singing with the Mets, who at the time already had Gao Da Xian Jia on the list. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe downplayed the importance, both positive and negative, of having a Japanese player on the club’s roster. “It was never a topic of discussion,” Wolff said last month, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez.
Sasaki may be drawn to play in another country for other reasons. Wolff said the Japanese media is often unkind to Sasaki, which may make him prefer to enter smaller markets. Toronto isn’t a small market, but it will stay out of the U.S. media spotlight. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, a media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Maybe that will lead the Jayhawks to promise Sasaki a more restrictive environment when it comes to media access. Toronto is also a city known for its diversity and relatively low crime rate.
These are speculative arguments, but the same could be said for the argument that Sasaki prefers Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe gave few clues as to how the final decision would be made, leaving much of the baseball world to guess.
Whatever decision he makes will likely have ripple effects for the rest of the offseason. The Padres are on a tight budget and need their entire roster. trading Dylan Seth This is reportedly a potential solution to their situation, which could become more likely if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers already have plenty of rotation options and might consider making a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That scenario may be unlikely for the Jays, who have been trying to add a starting pitcher all winter without success so far.
There will be a domino effect elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to abandon their verbal commitment to the Latino teen because they will need to transfer the bonus to Sasaki. This will lead to these players looking for other clubs. Some of that appears to be starting to happen, with the Pirates reportedly set to sign Dominican shortstop Darell Morel, formerly of the Dodgers.
It won’t be long before all of these ripple effects really intensify. Sasaki’s release window will close on January 23, meaning the solution will be available in less than a week. He won’t be able to officially sign until the start of the new international signing period on January 15, but it’s possible a deal could be reached before then.
