Vladimir Putin’s initial plan to occupy Ukraine in a few days ended in disaster. But the Russian president is now closer than ever to what he wants from a three-year invasion after Donald Trump bypassed Kiev and European allies in direct peace talks with Moscow.
People who spoke to him during the war said Putin’s main ambition was to build a new security building that would make Russia an influential field in Europe – just like the Yalta conference for the Soviet Union at the end of World War II .
Now, the United States may be willing to let him have it. Defense Minister Pete Hegseth dismissed Ukraine’s desire to join NATO and take its territory back from Russia. Putin and Trump discussed “bilateral economic cooperation”, which shows that the United States is ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Trump appears to be planning to back down on U.S. commitments to NATO and leave peacekeeping efforts behind.
“The situation for Putin looks much better than it was at any time in the entire war,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russian European Center in Berlin. “If the United States only ends its military unilaterally,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Russian European Center in Berlin. With diplomatic support and intelligence sharing, then Ukraine will be in a very difficult position. Even if Europeans are more involved, it will be difficult to get rid of it.”
In Moscow, people felt obvious joy after Wednesday’s call between Trump and Putin.
“A phone call can change the history of history – today, leaders of the United States and Russia may open a door to cooperation rather than confrontation of the future shaped by the future.” Post-channels engage in prisoners with the United States .
The call marks the dramatic and enormous policy of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, who promises to support Ukraine when working with other Western countries to isolate Russia. Now, the United States has said that Ukraine’s victory is not “realistic” – the transformation that Moscow praised is a return to rationality.
“In the end, Americans have no meaningless fantasy since the beginning of the war to take things seriously. It’s common sense. And have a chance to stop the war,” said a former senior Russian official.
“Putin got rid of three days of fantasy,” the former official added. Russia realized that its plan to win the blitz failed. “But ever since, Europeans and Americans have been under their leadership and they are only now starting to see the senses.”
Senior Ukrainian and Western officials said Trump and Putin may try to secure a ceasefire on one of two important dates: Easter, Easter, Orthodox and Catholic churches will all be celebrated on April 20 this year. Or on May 9, Russia celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
“Putin will want [a deal] On such a famous day,” Ukrainian official said.
In Moscow, the market reacts with the Glee. The ruble grew 5% against the dollar, and Moscow’s main trading index rose 2.8% in nine months to its highest level.
The pro-warrior Hardlins called the call a sign of the imminent victory of Russia.
“It must be sad to hear this. But their opinions are no longer important. “Ukraine is just an excuse for a grand dialogue between two great countries about the beginning of a new era of human history. ”
Putin told Trump that he wanted “a reason to resolve the conflict”, showing that Russia has not given up on the goal of stopping Ukraine’s ambition to join the West and withdraw its post-Cold War security order.
Moscow also demanded Ukraine to control the four partially occupied Southeast, none of which Russia had full control and expected that the West would end all sanctions on the war.
Dmitry Trenin, a research professor at the Moscow Advanced Institute of Economics, said that since Russia prevailed on the battlefield, Putin had the option to continue the war.
“Russia is serious about the need to resolve the Ukrainian issue. It is not prosecuting for peace. It knows that the only thing it can rely on is the ones it can provide,” Trenin said. “A deal involving important Russian security requirements can only guarantee another war will happen soon. Russia does not allow it.”
He added: “With the talks beginning, the battle will not stop; if there is no deal, it will continue.”
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It is worth noting that Trump’s appointment to negotiate with Russia does not include his own envoys in conflict, Keith Kellogg, the most outspoken U.S. official, demanding an increase in Moscow. Sanctions are under pressure and maintaining Ukraine’s arms supply.
“This shows that the government will not take Ukraine’s core issues seriously,” said a former senior U.S. official. “Putin could have seen it as a recognition of his view of the world and also a dream of realizing his true deep friction between the United States and Europe,” he said. A step.”
The momentum of Trump’s rapid end to the war turned a blind eye to Ukraine. Kiev hopes it can convince Trump to make a common stance in bringing Russia to the table and provide an opportunity to acquire its rare earth metal reserves in exchange for U.S. support.
Andriy Yermak, chief of staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told the Financial Times that building a close relationship with Trump’s team was a “challenge” and It will take some time to admit it before they can build the same type of relationship with the people in Biden’s management.
For now, Kiev and its European allies are looking, and from the outside, the United States will be afraid that the United States will reach an unfavorable deal to end the war with Putin and stick to the bill.
“Trump proves to be as bad as we fear. He is willing to reach a deal with Putin, but still wants Ukraine to pay in mineral resources. “The question is, what will Ukraine and Europe do.” ”
Other reports on Polina Ivanova in Berlin and Daria Mosolova in London
