Russian troops may still be in key bases in Syria, it would be ‘obvious’ if they tried to leave: senior analyst

• Russia has yet to conduct a large-scale withdrawal of troops and equipment from key bases in Syria.

• One senior analyst said the signs were clear – such a retreat would be difficult to hide.

• Russia says it is working to reach an agreement with Syria’s new government on its bases.

Russian troops remain at bases in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, and analysts say a withdrawal could be easily detected.

The Kremlin owns two major Assad-mandated facilities in the country – the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base – which are critical to Russia’s access to the Mediterranean and Africa.

According to Russian state media, the rebels currently control Latakia province, where the bases are located.

With Moscow’s long-term access to the bases now in question, satellite images show its warships have withdrawn from Tartus since Monday. Some were found taking up positions about 15 kilometers from the coast.

It is unclear whether the ships will return.

Darla Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times that satellite images also showed that Tartus had not yet been completely evacuated.

“If they have to leave Tartus, you’ll actually see more boats showing up to help move things out,” she told the outlet.

While the situation in Syria remains uncertain, Russia may temporarily move its ships out to sea to protect them.

Khmeimim is Russia’s main conduit for sending troops into Africa, and satellite imagery this week showed that much of the Kremlin’s equipment, including fighter jets and helicopters, remained at the site.

Massicotte wrote in a post on X that the evacuation of the Air Force base “will be apparent.”

“Aerial evacuation will require hundreds of IL-76 and An-124 sorties, not the handful spotted at Khmeimim yesterday,” she wrote, referring to the sighting of Khmeimim earlier this week. Several Ilyushin and Antonov cargo aircraft.

Massicot added: “When Russian troops deployed to Syria in 2015, they flew nearly 300 sorties in two weeks, and that was before the base expansion.”

Analysts at the Institute for War think tank in Washington wrote that Russia may delay a full withdrawal as it tries to reach a deal with Syria’s new government.

They said Russia was still retaining its assets in Khmeimim and that “the lack of a concerted response from Russia” showed that Moscow was still paying attention to the situation.

“If the Kremlin is able to establish relations with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its bases and personnel in Syria, it is likely to be hesitant to completely withdraw all military assets from Syria,” the analysts wrote. “.

Kremlin hopes evacuation won’t be necessary

Russia has also publicly stated that it will not give up its important bases.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia has been in contact with “those capable of ensuring the security of military bases.”

Meanwhile, Russian state-run TASS news agency quoted an unnamed Kremlin source as saying that Syrian opposition leaders had guaranteed the safety of Tartus and Khmeimim.

On the other hand, Ukrainian intelligence said on Tuesday that Russia plans to use Antonov and Ilyushin to evacuate Chmeimim, and Russian troops have begun dismantling Tartus equipment under the supervision of special forces. It does not explain how to obtain this information.

Russia’s future in Syria unclear

Despite these predictions, it is unclear how a post-Assad Syria will shape up. The country’s rebel forces are largely fragmented, made up of disparate factions who share the common goal of overthrowing Assad.

Mohammed al-Bashir, who oversees rebel-held areas in northern Syria, said on Tuesday he had been appointed interim prime minister.

Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that oversees the victorious insurgency, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda-affiliated fighter who is said to have severed ties with the terror group.

But he is still listed as a terrorist by the United States, with a $10 million bounty on his head. Although he has been a serious contender for the leadership, as of press time, he had not yet held a formal leadership role.

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