High-level ceasefire talks appeared to gain momentum on Monday, with Arab and U.S. mediators pressing for a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and release Hamas seizures before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office on Jan. 20 of hostages.
It is unclear whether the parties have reached solutions to all core disputes that proved insurmountable in previous rounds of talks, but officials expressed optimism that a deal could be reached.
On Monday, President Biden hinted that a deal between Israel and Hamas was imminent. “Concerning the war between Israel and Hamas, we are about to present a proposal that I detailed a few months ago that will finally come to fruition,” he said in a foreign policy speech.
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said it was “very likely” that Hamas and Israel would reach an agreement this week.
“The question now is, can we collectively seize the moment and make it happen,” he told Bloomberg in an interview.
A Hamas official said in a briefing that progress had been made on all issues and that a deal was possible in the next two days, provided Israel changed its position at the last minute.
Earlier on Monday, an Arab diplomat said “real progress” was being made in talks and two Israeli officials said a draft deal was awaiting Hamas’ approval and the next 24 hours were seen as crucial.
Other Israeli officials said the best conditions for a deal had been created to make a breakthrough possible. The officials said the impending agreement would allow Israel to maintain a buffer zone in Gaza while it is implemented and that Israeli forces would not leave the territory until all hostages are released.
They also said it would allow displaced Palestinians in southern Gaza to return to the north while implementing unspecified “security arrangements”.
Hamas officials, diplomats and Israeli officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.
After months of back-and-forth rounds of talks, hopes were dashed in a matter of days, with both Israel and Hamas blaming the other for the impasse.
A deal would bring some respite to Palestinians in Gaza, who endure miserable conditions in displacement camps and are subjected to relentless Israeli bombing, while families of hostages taken from Israel have struggled for months. I have been worried about my fate.
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Hamas leaders want an end to Israeli attacks that have severely weakened the group’s armed wing and the government, driven nearly 2 million people from their homes and reduced cities to rubble. Hamas officials have also said they are seeking a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the return of displaced people in the enclave’s south to the north, the entry of reconstruction materials and the freedom of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Hamas said in a statement on Monday that Palestinian prisoners would be released soon.
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The two sides have long discussed a three-phase deal that Arab and U.S. officials hope will end the war. But Israeli officials said on Monday that the deal may only be divided into two phases, with negotiations on the details of the second phase to begin on the 16th day of the first phase.
What’s the biggest obstacle?
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A major obstacle to successful negotiations is a permanent ceasefire. While Hamas demands a full end to the war, Netanyahu said he wanted a “partial” deal that would allow Israel to resume the war after releasing the hostages.
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Israel has been asking for vague wording in the text of the agreement to leave room for a resumption of fighting at some point, according to a person familiar with the matter and two Israeli officials. Analysts say Netanyahu fears his right-wing coalition partners could overthrow his government and jeopardize his political future if he agrees to a deal to end the war.
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Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called “this emerging deal” a “disaster for national security” in a post on X on Monday and declared that he would not support it.
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Hamas has shown no willingness to compromise on demands for an end to the war. Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, told a rally in Algeria last week that there must be an “absolute end to aggression.”
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Another obstacle is how far Israel will be allowed to conduct military operations in Gaza during the first phase of the deal. Two Israeli officials and Palestinian sources said Israel wanted to be able to maneuver 1.5 kilometers (about 1 mile) into the enclave. According to Palestinians, Hamas wants to limit any incursions to 500 meters of the border.
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However, Israeli officials have now been saying that the impending deal will allow Israel to maintain a buffer zone in Gaza during its implementation and that Israeli forces will not leave the territory until all hostages are released.
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Israel demands Hamas provide a list of hostages still alive. Without doing so, Israeli officials said, there would be no agreement on how many Palestinian prisoners Israel would be willing to release in exchange. As of Sunday morning, Israel had not received such a list, according to an official familiar with the matter.
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Last week, Hamas representatives said the group had approved a list of 34 hostages to be released by Israel in the first phase of the deal, but did not specify how many of them were still alive. On Wednesday, Israeli authorities announced that the body of one of the hostages on the list, 53-year-old Israeli Arab citizen Youssef Ziyadne, had been found in Gaza.
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On Monday, Israeli officials confirmed the number of hostages released in the first phase at 33 and said their assessment was that most were still alive.
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But Hamas has agreed to Israel’s request to include 11 controversial people in the list of hostages released in the first phase of the deal. Israel classifies them as civilians, but Hamas views them as soldiers, according to two Israeli officials and Palestinians. Israel is weighing Hamas’s demand that the 11 be treated as soldiers and exchanged for more Palestinian prisoners than for the release of civilian hostages.
Isabel Kershner provided reporting for this article.
