Almost as soon as the war in Gaza began, global leaders began working to stop it. For 15 months, Israel and Hamas have repeatedly rejected peace proposals. During that time, tens of thousands of Palestinians died. Israeli families grieve for loved ones held hostage in Gaza. People around the world protested the conflict.
Yesterday, Israel and Hamas finally agreed to a ceasefire. Israel will withdraw its troops from parts of Gaza and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners as part of a six-week ceasefire. Hamas will release a third of the hostages it still holds. Officials hope the ceasefire will lead to a permanent peace, but that depends on whether the two sides can later resolve more thorny issues.
The Israeli government still needs to ratify the deal, but officials consider it complete. “We are delivering to the next team a real opportunity for a brighter future for the Middle East,” President Biden said of the incoming Donald Trump administration. “I hope they embrace it.”
What’s in the deal?
The truce will come into effect on Sunday. Hamas will release 33 hostages in batches within six weeks. They include women, children, men over 50 and the sick or injured. About 100 hostages remain in Gaza, but about 35 are believed to be dead.
In exchange, Israel will release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. It must also allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza. In a week, Israel will withdraw its troops from the enclave’s most densely populated areas.
One major problem remains: some details are vague. Reporting from Jerusalem, my colleague Patrick Kingsley wrote: “In an effort to persuade both parties to sign, the mediators crafted an arrangement that was so loosely worded that some of its components remained unresolved, meaning it could easily collapse.
Why now?
Since the fighting began on October 7, 2023, a lasting ceasefire has remained elusive.
1. Israel’s success: After nearly a year and a half of war, Israel has weakened its enemies in the region. It has killed many Hamas fighters and leaders, including the group’s longtime leader in Gaza. It destroyed much of the Lebanese Hezbollah organization. Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah, has also suffered losses, notably the collapse of allied regimes in Syria. With these victories, another attack like the one on October 7 would be less likely, thus fulfilling one of Israel’s goals in the war.
2. The efforts of two presidents: Biden and Trump have pressured Israel and Hamas to reach a deal before the end of Biden’s term. Biden sees the armistice as an important part of his legacy. Trump wants to avoid having to deal with such a difficult issue as president. The two presidents’ teams worked together on the negotiations, and the final deal broadly followed the framework Biden laid out in the spring. (My colleague Peter Baker writes about working together here.)
3. Domestic pressure: Inside Israel, critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say he has not done enough to free the hostages. In the Gaza Strip, Palestinians are frustrated with Hamas and demanding peace as the humanitarian crisis caused by the war intensifies. These pressures forced Israeli and Palestinian leaders to negotiate.
What to do next?
The Israeli government is likely to ratify the deal today. When it comes into force on Sunday, both sides must deliver on their commitments. If they don’t, the ceasefire could collapse and fighting could resume.
If the truce holds, negotiators plan to reach a more durable peace deal in the next six weeks. While Israeli support may be contingent on the release of all remaining hostages, the terms of a potential deal remain unknown. These negotiations will take place under Trump’s leadership.
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