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Fragile Middle East ceasefire tested as thousands try to return home

Lebanese officials said the fragile ceasefire between Lebanon and Gaza was tested on Sunday as Israeli forces inflicted dozens of casualties in southern Lebanon and in Gaza Israel blocked Palestinians from returning home, saying Hamas was violating the terms of the truce.

But at the end of the day, Israel and Hamas said in Gaza that they had reached an understanding through mediators to resolve the dispute.

In Lebanon, a 60-day truce that initially called for a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from the country’s southern region by Sunday will be extended until February 18, the White House said in a statement.

Negotiators had hoped that the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, signed in November, would become permanent and ensure some measure of calm in the volatile region. Thousands of Lebanese displaced by the war have flooded the roads leading south to return home.

But as the original deadline for Israeli troops and militant group Hezbollah forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon passed on Sunday, a very different scenario was emerging. Israeli forces killed at least 22 people and wounded 120 others in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese Health Ministry said, making Sunday the country’s deadliest day since the war ended in November.

The Israeli military said in a statement late Sunday that it “fired warning shots to neutralize a threat” – language that suggested the shots may have been more than just warnings. “Dozens of rioters” were said to be in the area. The military also said its soldiers had spotted “a vehicle bearing the Hezbollah flag” and that its forces had “taken action to neutralize the threat”.

In recent days, Israeli officials have expressed concern that Hezbollah remains active in southern Lebanon and expressed doubts about the Lebanese army’s ability to control the group.

These claims cannot be independently verified. The five-member committee overseeing the ceasefire has not publicly released any information on Hezbollah’s compliance with its terms.

The White House statement on Sunday did not specifically mention Hezbollah or Israel’s military presence in southern Lebanon. It did say the governments of Lebanon, Israel and the United States would begin talks to return Lebanese prisoners captured after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, sparking a regional war.

There was no immediate comment from Israel, the Lebanese government or Hezbollah.

The United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) warned in a statement on Sunday that “further deterioration of the situation must be avoided”. It called on the Israeli military to refrain from shooting at civilians and on Lebanon to comply with the Lebanese military’s instructions.
“Further violence could undermine the fragile security situation,” the statement read.

“Despite Hezbollah’s attempts to return to southern Lebanon, the Israeli military is determined to continue operating in accordance with the understanding between Israel and Lebanon,” the Israeli military said in a statement late Sunday.

Tens of thousands of Israelis who were evacuated from their homes in northern Israel 15 months ago have been reluctant to return for fear of cross-border attacks by Hezbollah.

In the Gaza Strip on Sunday, civilians displaced by the war were also unable to return to their homes. Israeli forces prevented Hamas from doing so after Israeli officials accused them of violating the terms of a ceasefire that took effect a week ago.

Under the terms of the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire agreed this month, Israel is expected to withdraw some troops and allow hundreds of thousands of uprooted Gazans to move north after a second exchange of hostages and prisoners on Saturday.

The Israeli government said Hamas violated the agreement by failing to comply with agreed-upon orders to release hostages and by failing to provide Israel with information on the status of prisoners still in Gaza who were captured when militants attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.

The dispute revolves around one hostage, Israeli civilian Arbel Yehud. Ms Yehud was due to be among the women released on Saturday as part of a swap for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Israel demands the release of female civilians first and then the release of female soldiers.

But on Saturday, four soldiers were released in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners.

Hussein al-Batsh, an official with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a smaller armed group and sometimes Hamas rival in Gaza, told The New York Times on Sunday ”, Ms. Yehud was detained by the Quds Force, the group’s military wing. He said Ms Yehud was not released on Saturday due to “technical reasons”.

After a day of intense talks to resolve the crisis, Qatar, one of the main mediators between Israel and Hamas, said near midnight on Sunday that Hamas would hand over Ms Yehud and two other hostages. Ms Yehud and two other hostages will be handed over by next Friday.

Israel confirmed Ms Yehud would be released on Thursday along with Israeli soldier Agam Berger and another hostage. Israel also said it had received Hamas’s long-awaited list providing detailed status of the remaining 26 hostages to be released in the first phase of the deal.

In return, Israel said it would allow Gazans into northern Gaza starting Monday morning.

Photos circulated in Palestinian media on Sunday of large numbers of displaced Palestinians waiting to return north near the inland Riem corridor.

The Palestinian Authority’s Wafa news agency reported that one person was killed and many others were wounded in central Gaza west of Nuserat when Israeli troops opened fire on crowds waiting to return north. The Israeli military said its forces fired warning shots at several Palestinian gatherings in central Gaza, describing them in a statement as “suspects who were advancing towards the troops and posing a threat to them”.

Ghada al-Kurd, a 37-year-old Palestinian, said she chose to stay in central Gaza on Sunday despite longing to return to her home in the north. “I wouldn’t risk my life,” she said. “Those soldiers can’t be trusted.”

In the early weeks of the war, Ms. Kuder left her family and two daughters in Gaza City, again wondering when she would see them again. “We’re just waiting here, feeling stressed and anxious,” she said. “They are playing with our fate,” she added.

Similar sentiments were expressed by thousands of Lebanese trying to return to towns and villages along the Israeli border, despite warnings from the Lebanese and Israeli militaries that it was not yet safe.

Hundreds of people waited anxiously outside the village of Mes-Jabal on the southern border with Lebanon on Sunday afternoon.

Ibrahim Hamoud, 41, said he recently saw a video sent by a friend in the Lebanese army showing him in his house in the village: the house was standing, which made him loose tone, but the video also shows an Israeli tank stationed outside the village.

“I have been away from my village, my home for more than a year,” Hamoud said in a telephone interview. “I never thought I’d come back.”

The crisis poses a severe test for Lebanon’s new leadership. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam seek to wrest some political control from Hezbollah and establish a functioning state.

Experts warn that any prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon could breathe new life into Hezbollah, which was founded to liberate Lebanon from Israeli occupation and portray itself as the only one capable of protecting Lebanon’s borders strength.

“As long as Israel occupies Lebanon, the Hezbollah narrative will be resurrected,” said Samina Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph’s University in Beirut.

For those who managed to enter villages in southern Lebanon, the scale of the destruction was immense. Entire communities were reduced to rubble when Israel launched an invasion on October 1, 2024, aimed at weakening Hezbollah. The armed group began firing on Israel a day after a Hamas attack sparked a war in Gaza.

In the southern town of Aitashab, much of which is now in ruins, residents walked through rubble-strewn streets and flattened buildings. Among them is the town’s mayor, Mohamed Srour, who was displaced after attacks between Hezbollah and Israel began more than a year ago.

He said Israeli soldiers had not yet completely withdrawn from the town and were shooting sporadically at civilians. These claims cannot be independently verified. Still, Mr. Sruhl remained adamant.

“Today, Etta is celebrating her long-awaited return,” he said. “Houses are destroyed, livelihoods are gone, but our will to survive is stronger. We will build again.

Report contributors: Hiba Yazbek, Iyad Abu Hewila, Jonathan Rice, Gaby Sobelman, Myra Novick, Wydah Saad and Dayana rock seat.

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