Experts say Syria’s Bashar Assad’s fall is a strategic blow to Iran and Russia

The stunning collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has shocked the region and beyond, marking a dramatic turning point after nearly 14 years of civil war. Assad’s long-lasting rule by Russia and Iran has ended, and his former backers are scrambling to deal with its aftermath. The implications for these two major powers, as well as the broader regional and global landscape, are far-reaching.

Experts say Russia’s involvement in Syria is by no means solely related to Assad. Securing a foothold in the Middle East is a cornerstone of Moscow’s strategy, with the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval facility being key assets for projecting power. However, with Assad out of power, Russian assets in Syria are at risk.

Rebecca Kovler, strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “The Putin Playbook,” emphasizes this importance. “Syria has been a key battleground in the broader proxy conflict between Russia and the United States, and losing Assad would represent a strategic defeat for Russia, depriving them of a key base in the Middle East and further increasing their stake in the fight in Ukraine. exhausted their military resources.

Trump responds after rebels seize Syria and oust longtime dictator: ‘Assad is out’

Ksenia Svetlova, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, described the consequences of the incident as: “Russia has shown its true colors – a power that overpromises and underdelivers. They Came to Syria with grand ambitions, but achieved little beyond helping Assad survive through joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah. Post-war reconstruction never began, and Russia now focuses on On Ukraine, Syria has become a secondary priority, now that Russia has abandoned Assad and exposed itself as an unreliable partner.

She said the defeat sent a message to Moscow’s allies. “In the Middle East, Russia now looks weak compared to the United States. What shocks Syrians is that Moscow allowed ‘little Assad’ (as opponents call the Assad regime) to fall, while the United States It has demonstrated strength by standing firmly with Israel on the Israeli issue.

On December 11, 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia Province, Syria. (Russian flight/Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/via Reuters/File photo)

As Kovler explains, Assad’s fall underscores Syria’s role as a battlefield for U.S.-Russian proxy wars. “President Trump reportedly called on Putin to de-escalate tensions before Assad’s fall, but Putin doubled down, escalating his nuclear doctrine and signaling his refusal to concede. Now one of Putin’s key allies Assad has lost Syria, and with that defeat, Trump may have new leverage over Putin, as losing Syria would weaken Russia’s influence in the region and strain its already stretched resources. That could open the way for Trump to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Iran

Iranian religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (right) meets with Syrian leader Bashar Assad in Tehran, Iran, on February 25, 2019. (Iranian Leader’s Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

For Iran, Assad’s fall is a devastating blow to its long-term regional strategy. Syria is a key link in Tehran’s “axis of resistance”, linking Iran to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and smuggling weapons across the region through a corridor from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon.

“This is an unprecedented and historic moment,” Svetlova said. “Qassem Soleimani’s carefully crafted ‘Ring of Fire’ in Iran has been shattered. If Soleimani were still alive, he would be horrified to see the collapse of his life’s work.”

The weakening of Hezbollah in the war with Israel has further exacerbated Assad’s vulnerability, depriving the regime of critical support there. Hezbollah was a key force assisting Assad’s forces during the civil war, but after suffering heavy losses from Israeli forces, it can no longer provide sufficient support. At the same time, Iran has not sent additional troops to support Assad.

Islamist rebels conquer Syria, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad flees

Rebel fighters stand near the Iranian embassy with a garland of Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah after the Syrian rebels announced their overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8. A torn poster of late Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani. (Reuters/Firas Makdesi)

An Iranian journalist revealed the internal reaction in Iran during an anonymous interview with Fox News Digital. “Most Iranians are celebrating the fall of Assad. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards focused their resources on maintaining the axis of resistance, draining the wealth of the Iranian people. Now, with Assad out of power , Iran’s oppressive influence in the region is expected to disappear.

“The Iranian people and the Iranian regime have completely different views,” another Iranian dissident told Fox News Digital in an anonymous interview in the country. “While the regime is largely watching Assad’s fall from the sidelines, perhaps due to its own internal weaknesses or strategic agreements, the Iranian people are celebrating. A wave of hope and joy is spreading across social media, Promoted by the idea that a national revolution aligned with the Islamic Republic – past or present – could trigger a domino effect, with Assad’s fall representing, for many, the weakening of the axis of resistance and the emergence within Iran of The possibility of change.

Syria’s Islamist rebels were caught off guard by Assad, Putin and the Iranian regime, creating new headaches for us in the Middle East

On December 2, 2024, rebel forces in northwestern Syria seized military vehicles belonging to the regime on their way to Qureis airport in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. (Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto via APRami Alsayed/NurPhoto via AP)

While Assad’s fall creates opportunities for a new order in the Middle East, it also carries significant risks. The surprise attack on Assad’s forces, led by the Salafi-jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), commanded by Abu Mohammad Golani, highlighted the complexity of the situation. HTS is Syria’s most powerful rebel faction, evolving from the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front but claiming to have severed ties with the group in 2016.

“Who will fill this gap?” Kovler warned. “Rebels are not good people – they are the same extremists we have seen before. While they may appear in Western media wearing green T-shirts and give glossy interviews, the reality is different. Overthrowing a dictator often leads to Or even worse outcomes, as we saw in Iraq and Libya.

Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s National Security Council and vice president of Mind Israel, believes there are potential benefits for both the United States and Israel.

Fighters ride motorcycles into Rashiddin district on the outskirts of Aleppo, with smoke billowing in the background, during fighting on November 29, 2024, as Tahrir al-Sham jihadists and alliance factions continue to attack the government in Aleppo governorate The army launched an offensive. (Photo by BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images)

“The fall of the Assad regime highlights the failure of Russia and Iran as regional powers. At the same time, the United States is flexing its muscles by siding with Israel and choosing the winning side. This is Washington leveraging its position and building a moderate Arab countries – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt – are allied with Israel against Sunni and Shiite Islamist forces.

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Golov said this would have consequences for Beijing. “China has been largely absent from the Middle East conflict, focusing instead on its global economic goals. Russia, by contrast, has proven itself unreliable in Syria and is retreating even as the United States supports its allies. This provides the U.S. with Strengthening its position offers a unique opportunity in a Middle East where the Iranian axis is collapsing.