corbyn burns is the top remaining prospect in the free agent class. Despite a generally strong and rapidly changing rotation market, top starting pitchers remain unsigned.
Much of the recent discussion about Burns has focused on some combination of the Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles (though to a lesser extent Baltimore). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that San Francisco has made a long-term offer, though he noted that if there’s still no solution for Burns, the Giants may choose to turn to other targets.
The terms of San Francisco’s proposal are unclear. However, Feinsand reports that the former Cy Young Award winner is looking for a deal that would match at least $245MM in guaranteed money. Stephen Strasberg Received from Nationals in 2019-20 offseason. (After factoring in extensions, the net present value of Strasburg’s contract is actually about $229MM.) The pre-extension guarantee is the third-largest pitching investment in MLB history, behind only Yoshinobu Yamamoto $325MM contract with Dodgers and $324MM contract Gerrit Cole Dealing with the Yankees.
It’s no surprise that Burns and agent Scott Boras were in this market to secure funding for Strasburg. MLBTR predicted in early November that Burns would land seven years and earn $200. Basically, every starter signed thus far has met or exceeded these (and most other) projections. Max Fried is the biggest beneficiary. He received an eight-year, $218MM contract at the Winter Meetings. That’s two years and $62MM above MLBTR’s projection. Fried gets an extra season and $43MM Aaron Nora Received it last winter.
Nearly all forecasts pointed to Burns having a higher opinion than Fried. This makes things in the 220MM range feel like floorboards to the former. Creating a significant separation would put Burns close to or surpassing Strasburg’s bankroll. Burns is nine months younger than Freed. He didn’t suffer any injuries of note. That’s unlike Fried, who missed three months in 2023 with a strained forearm flexor. Burns has also reached greater heights, winning a National League ERA title and a 2022 Cy Young title.
The only problem is the recent wobbly decline. Burns fanned more than 35 percent of batters in 2020-21. By 2022, this proportion will drop to around 30%. Still, even the “reduced” strikeout rate is basically on par with Fried’s 23.2% strikeout rate, so Burns isn’t at a disadvantage in that regard.
That will be weighed against the question of which teams are still willing to offer more than $200 in deals. The Yankees would have been an obvious suitor for Burns if they hadn’t signed Fried. They may have quit by now. It seems unlikely that the Mets will make a huge commitment to starting pitching. The Red Sox have acquired Garrett Crochet and agree to the terms Walker Buehler Signing a one-year deal adds a significant edge to their rotation. They may have the cap space to keep Burns involved, but they no longer face the urgency to add an impact arm.
San Francisco probably has the best combination of spending power and demand for ace. Logan Webb Is a legitimate No. 1, but the Giants aren’t making up for their lost productivity Blake Snell Gone. In addition to Webber, San Francisco’s rotation also includes some upside games with questions about their durability and/or performance record (i.e. Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong).
The Giants have made two nine-figure investments in recent months. they extended Matt Chapman Price before new additions in September: $151MM Willie Adams A seven-year, $18MM free agent contract. RosterResource calculates their luxury tax amount to be about $208 million, which puts them about $33 million below the base threshold. Their actual salary commitment is approximately $167MM. This puts them nearly $40mm below last year’s spending levels. It’s unclear if the owners are willing to spend more than $200MM in opening-day payroll again, but they could theoretically add Adames and Burnes without a huge increase in relative spending.
The Giants gave up their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and $1MM in the 26-year international amateur bonus pool to sign Adams. If they were to acquire Burns, they would be giving up their third- and sixth-highest picks and another $500,000 from the international pool, and Burns rejected Baltimore’s qualifying offer.
