When we launched the Nasdaq IPO Pulse a year ago, we said it showed that “IPO activity… should remain on an upward trend” in the U.S. as we enter 2024.
Then, when we covered the Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse in September, we wrote that it “showed [Stockholm] IPO activity…is likely to remain on an upward trajectory in the coming months.
Now it seems that our IPO plan is correct!
2024 is the year of resurgence in IPO activity in the US and Stockholm
Actual IPO activity in the US and Stockholm also recovered in 2024, following an earlier upturn in the US and Stockholm IPO pulse.
According to Nasdaq, there will be 179 non-SPAC IPOs in the United States in 2024, the most since 2021 and a 40% increase from 2023 (127). This year has been a better year in terms of value raised (excluding SPACs), with the value raised rising more than 50% from 2023 to $30 billion, the most since 2021.
Additionally, the year has been strong, with the fourth quarter seeing the highest number of non-SPAC IPOs in a single quarter in three years (53).
The number of Swedish IPOs in 2024 (23) has increased by more than 60% compared to 2023 (14 IPOs). Sweden also ended the year on a strong note, with the highest number of IPOs in a quarter in 2.5 years (10) in the fourth quarter.
The U.S. leads global IPOs, followed by Asia, while some major markets lag
Not only are U.S. IPOs performing strongly compared to recent years, but also compared to the rest of the world.
According to FactSet data (including SPAC), there will be more than 250 IPOs in the United States in 2024.
After the United States, Asia (and emerging) markets dominate the list, accounting for 12 of the top 14 spots.
European markets make the top 20 in the chart (Sweden ranks 15th), but there are also some major European economies that do not appear on this list, including France and the Netherlands, both of which dropped out of the top 20.
Figure 1: US leads global IPO activity in 2024, followed by Asian markets
Since the size of most countries’ economies and stock markets vary greatly, it is somewhat unfair to compare countries through simple IPO numbers.
A “fairer” comparison would be to look at each country’s percentage listing growth due to IPOs. We show this in a gray circle. By this criterion, 11 countries, including the United States (5%), are clustered in the 4%-6% range. The clear winners in 2024 are Macedonia (14%) and Saudi Arabia (12%). China, Australia and the UK scored the lowest.
Nasdaq IPO pulse near highs, shows continued upward trend in U.S. IPOs
While 2024 is the best year for U.S. IPOs in three years, some commentators believe 2025 will be an even better year. For now, the cyclical drivers of future IPO activity captured by the Nasdaq IPO Pulse look quite supportive.
While the IPO pulse declined in December, it was only slightly below October’s 3.5-year high, suggesting that U.S. IPO activity should remain on an upward trend through the middle of the year.
Figure 2: Nasdaq IPO Pulse shows IPO activity will continue until mid-2025
Nasdaq Stockholm IPO retreats from highs, but not yet signaling downturn
For Stockholm, the uptick in initial public offerings (IPOs) has waned, but not yet to the point where it’s a clear sign that a downturn is coming.
The Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse was on a marked upturn in the first half of 2024, reaching a 2.5-year high in June (chart below, blue line). The index has since retreated from that high, but December remains above October’s eight-month low.
Figure 3: Stockholm IPO Pulse shows IPO activity continues to pick up in spring
Given the recent weakness, we can test whether it really The downturn in IPO activity is illustrated by comparison to past downturns. That’s because most of the past downturns were indeed expectations of a downward trend in IPO activity, but some were false alarms.
Fortunately, based on this comparison, the recent slowdown currently looks more akin to historical false positives, so the Stockholm IPO pulse is no But it ultimately showed a directional shift in IPO activity.
This means we expect Stockholm IPO activity to remain on an upward trend for now, but our next update in April should help clarify whether a dip is likely in the near term.
U.S. and Stockholm IPO activity likely to maintain upward trend in Q2 2025
2024 is a year of resurgence in IPO activity in the US and Stockholm. According to our IPO Pulse, IPO activity is likely to remain on an upward trend through the middle of the year – especially in the U.S.
Of course, a lot can happen in a year, so we’ll be updating our Nasdaq IPO Pulse each quarter to see if these upward trends continue beyond mid-year, or if there’s a directional shift ahead.
