The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed, nearly 14 years after the uprising against him and half a century after his father launched the family’s brutal dictatorship Many centuries.
Rebels led by Hizbul Tahrir al-Sham took control of Damascus early on Sunday after sweeping across the country over the past 12 days.
Many Syrians are cheering the swift end to a long-standing tyranny, but are deeply uncertain about what comes next for a country at the heart of Middle East strategy.
Some content could not be loaded. Check your network connection or browser settings.
How did we get to this moment?
There were extraordinary scenes across the country as rebels and civilians opposed to the regime celebrated the end of the Arab Spring uprisings that began in late 2010.
In early 2011, Assad denied the possibility that revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt would sweep through Syria. He was wrong. In March of the same year, protests were sparked in the southern city of Daraa over the torture of children accused of painting anti-regime graffiti. Authorities opened fire on demonstrators, sparking a wider uprising that soon spread across the country and turned into a civil war.
In the early years of the conflict, Assad’s rule came under intense pressure. But starting in 2015, support from Iran, its Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and Russia helped shift the conflict in the regime’s favor.
The regime’s systematic releases of imprisoned militants have fueled the rise of jihadist movements, particularly the Islamic State. Western countries have launched military operations against the Islamic State, including airstrikes, after footage emerged of beheadings of hostages and deadly terror attacks in European countries.
The combination of events helped Assad regain control of much of Syria, with Sunni rebel groups pushed into northwestern Idlib province under Turkish protection. Türkiye has also deployed troops to other northern regions to take control of enclaves where other rebel factions are based, as Ankara seeks to push Kurdish militants away from its borders.
Why is Syria so important in the region?
Syria is located at a regional crossroads, bordered by Türkiye to the north, Iraq and Iran to the east, Jordan and the Gulf countries to the south, and Lebanon, Israel and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Damascus, the capital, and Aleppo, the second largest city in the north, have both been inhabited for thousands of years, making them among the most continuously settled urban centers in the world. Syria has long attracted foreign powers and been occupied in whole or in part by them, including the Romans, Crusaders, and the Ottoman Empire.
The country gained independence from France after World War II, but political instability ensued, with rival factions vying for control and numerous coups.
A 1963 coup established Baathist one-party rule. Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, was defense minister and former air force chief who came to power in 1970. Governed as a safe state.
Hafez al-Assad brutally suppressed dissent, most notoriously the 1982 massacre of tens of thousands in the central city of Hama. .
How does Bashar Assad rule?
After Hafez Assad’s death in 2000, his 34-year-old son Bashar came to power. Bashar, a British-trained ophthalmologist married to a British-Syrian banker, projects an image of modernity and reform. He was welcomed by Western leaders such as British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who hosted Assad and his wife Asma in Downing Street in 2002.
The international response did not reflect the events in Syria. After the death of Hafez al-Assad, the regime stifled a brief surge of liberal political activity known as the Damascus Spring. It continued to have a firm grip on the country – until pent-up opposition erupted in 2011.
What is Assad’s power base?
The Assad family belongs to the Alawite sect, which is centered in the western region of the country, including along the Mediterranean coast. Alawite beliefs are similar to Shia Islam, Iran’s official religion. The Alawite dominance of the regime and its lucrative crony business have caused deep resentment among many Syrians.
The majority of the population is Arab Sunni Muslim, but the country also has many ethnic and religious minorities. Kurds are estimated to make up 10% of the population, with the majority living in the northeast. Before the war Christians were also thought to make up 10% of the population.
Many Alawites, including opponents of the regime, fear possible reprisals if Assad steps down. Other Syrians from various backgrounds are waiting nervously to see how the Islamic victors will rule.
What are the wider impacts of a rebel takeover?
The conflict in Syria has had global and regional consequences, attracting world powers and triggering an international refugee crisis.
Russia’s military support for Assad has allowed Moscow to solidify and expand its presence in Syria, an important foothold for President Putin in the Middle East. It has a Mediterranean naval base in Tartus and an air base in Khmeimim. The fate of these facilities and other Russian operations in the country is unclear.
According to the United Nations, the conflict in Syria has displaced more than 14 million people. Nearly 5 million Syrian refugees are registered in Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt alone. More than half of them are in Türkiye.
Refugee flows caused political tension in Europe, especially during the peak of asylum seeker flows in the mid-2010s. The United Nations says Germany will host more than 500,000 Syrian refugees by 2021. Far-right parties in many European countries are growing in popularity by opposing the arrival of Syrians and other asylum seekers.
During the war, Syria had been a major producer of Captagon, a popular stimulant in the Middle East. This is estimated to have generated billions of dollars in revenue for the regime and its allies during the conflict. It is one of many assets up for grabs after the Assad era ends.
Why are US troops stationed in Syria?
The main U.S. military intervention in Syria occurred in a 2014 operation aimed at forcing Islamic State to break away from its declared caliphate across large swaths of Iraq and Syria.
U.S. forces are working with Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces rebels in the north and east of the country. A U.S. military contingent remains in Syria after the Islamic State was ousted.
Other U.S. soldiers are stationed at Tanf, near the border with Iraq and Jordan. According to the Pentagon, there are currently about 900 U.S. troops stationed in Syria.
The U.S. military presence depends not only on political developments in Damascus but also on Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency next month.
In 2018, during Trump’s first term, he called for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, but a full withdrawal never happened, in part because of concerns about whether Russia and Iran would take advantage.
Cartography by Steven Bernard
