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“The world there won’t be waiting for us,” Friedrich Merz said in celebration of his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) victory in German parliamentary elections on Sunday. But waiting is exactly what the new alliance that we want to take power in Berlin must do.
After four years of drift and dysfunction, Germany needs a stable, effective and ambitious government. Europe longs for this, too. The basis for Germany’s post-war success is disintegrating. US trade protectionism and Chinese state capitalism are twisting open markets. As Russia’s increasing threats, the United States’ security assurances to Europe have passed. In Germany, worrisome minorities are losing confidence in mainstream politics – despite an estimated turnout of 84% on Sunday, an impressive testament to Germany’s overall commitment to the democratic process (note, JD Vance) .
Solving these huge problems will be a difficult task for any government. But, like the rest of Europe, Germany’s politics is increasingly fragmented and polarized. After a bruising campaign, mainstream parties often focus their firepower on each other, and Melz now has to show that he can reconcile, which is not an obvious feature. Although the CDU is a clear winner and can capture the principal, it is estimated to win 29% of the vote – apart from the last election in 2021, the party’s worst result since 1949. Olaf Scholz, the centre-left predecessor, was when the Social Democrats took office.
Myers’ easiest choice was to have a major alliance with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), but without Scholz, who refused to serve under the CDU leaders. After nearly four years of failing to lead a quarrels with the Greens and Liberal Democrats, the ever-complacent Scholz brought his party to its worst failure in 137 years. The opposition spell would do well, but to govern it, Meles’ alternative would be worse.
The CDU and SPD should be able to reach consensus on tax cuts, more public investment, higher defense spending, and efforts by asylum seekers. But negotiations can be long and difficult, especially because Meles brings his party to power. He passed a parliamentary motion calling for a sharp immigration crackdown supported by far-right alternatives, while insisting that he would never cooperate. It won several of his votes because it rarely gets the far right, but it burns trust in SPD.
The major league agreement is feasible. The question is whether it will surpass the lowest common ground. This is actually a tee cooperation, given the tendency of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party. If they need Green Party support to make up the majority, there is little chance of operating a coherent, orderly government.
Germany needs to make some fundamental choices, such as reforming the constitutional debt brakes to free up public investment, obtaining funds for the continued increase in defense spending, and agreeing to give the EU more financial firepower. Myers tips around these issues during the campaign. Only at its end stage (due to the Trump administration’s embrace of the AFD) does this game start to reflect the pace of global affairs change.
It was on Sunday night that Merz revealed the decisive mission that could be his prime minister’s rule. He said that given that the Trump administration is “largely indifferent” to the fate of Europe, his goal is to “achieve independence.”
This is a vaulted ambition. In theory, it could unite the CDU and SPD in a national emergency government, especially if the center-left lags behind the popular and Hodge’s Secretary of Defense Boris Pistorius, of the outgoing coalition. However, the SPD may slam the sacrifices needed and cannot guarantee the two-thirds majority required in both houses of parliament to change debt braking.
Germany’s European partners are desperate to hope that it will boldly restore its economy and reattack. Unless you do so, it will threaten its survival, not just the competitiveness and security of the EU. Another four years of jittery government will end in disaster as AFP awaits the use of public disillusionment that takes advantage of established party delivery capabilities.
